Europe: Widespread deficits persist in Continental Europe

21 April 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2023 indicates widespread anomalies throughout Continental Europe, with some anomalies appearing in noncontiguous countries.

Areas experiencing extreme to exceptional deficits include:

France, widespread throughout the country, with the most intense deficits appearing in the western city of Poitiers.
Eastern Bulgaria, in regions along the coast of the Black Sea.
The Baltics, widespread throughout Latvia and Estonia.
Northeastern Spain, near Barcelona. Similarly intense deficits are expected near the southeastern city of Almeria.
Eastern Czech Republic, near the city of Brno.
Central Sweden, primarily in the counties of Dalarna and Jamtland.

Moderate to severe deficits are expected in:

Southern Spain, near the city of Malaga.
Northern Italy, spreading from the city of Turin to Venice. The island of Sardinia can expect similarly intense deficits.
Southwestern Denmark, in coastal regions near the city of Esgjerg.
Southwestern Poland, near the city of Wroclaw.
Southwestern Finland, near the city of Lappeenranta.
Northern United Kingdom, throughout areas near the cities of Glasgow and Edinburgh.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in:

Southernmost Serbia, along its shared border with the northernmost area of Kosovo.
Northern Ukraine, along the country’s northern border.
Northwestern Romania, near the city of Cluj-Napoca.
Eastern Belarus, along the country’s eastern border.
Northern Norway, throughout the county of Troms og Finnmark fylke.
Northwestern Iceland, in regions near the village of Hvammstangi. Further northwest in the Strandabyggð municipality, exceptional deficits are expected.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2023 predicts severe to exceptional deficits in central to northern France, northern Italy and northeastern Spain. Similarly intense deficits are expected in central Sweden, eastern Hungary, eastern Slovakia, and throughout the Baltics. In northern Arctic Norway, eastern Belarus, and northern Ukraine, severe to extreme surpluses are expected to emerge. Surpluses in northwestern Iceland are expected to linger.

From June through August 2023, deficits are expected to linger throughout Continental Europe, with the most intense deficits occurring in the Baltics and central Norway. France, northern Italy, southwestern Poland, and eastern Czech Republic can expect moderate to severe deficits.

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2023 – anticipates mostly normal conditions to mild deficits across Continental Europe, with intense surplus appearing in northern Arctic Norway.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Newly released satellite images show widespread drought and shrinking lakes throughout much of Europe. In Spain, the Sau reservoir in the Catalonia region reached such low levels that Catalan authorities announced they would begin the process of completely draining the reservoir. As of March, the reservoir was roughly 10% full, with a capacity to supply water to about one million people for three months, out of the five million plus people who rely on it. Local authorities called the draining of the reservoir “an extraordinary measure” to “guarantee the population's demands as much as possible."

Similarly, Montbel Lake in southern France is below 30% of its capacity. The lake began shrinking in the summer of 2022 and has only gotten worse due to the region experiencing its driest winter in decades. Local farmer and water lead for the National Federation of Farmers’ Unions in Ariège Boris Rouquet stated “In the history of the lake, created in the early 1980s, this is the first time that this situation has been so serious.”

Other areas in southern Europe are facing crop shortages due to prolonged drought. Experts are warning that this year’s harvests may soon be unable to sustain crops such as wheat and barley. "Irreversible damage has been done to more than 3.5 million hectares of crops," stated the Coordinator of Organizations of Farmers and Ranchers, Spain’s farmers association. Sergio Vicente-Serrano, a researcher at the Pyrenean Institute of Ecology of Zaragoza, warned that "if rainfall does not improve within a few days, then rainfed crop production, especially winter cereals, will be significantly reduced.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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