Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits persist throughout Mexico

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits persist throughout Mexico

20 April 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2023 indicates that moderate to severe water deficits will cover most of Mexico and Central America, with some isolated pockets of surplus and transitional conditions.

Deficits are expected in:

  • Northern Baja California, with exceptional deficits occurring in central areas of the San Quintin municipality, as well as areas southeast of the Laguna Salada. 

  • Mexico, throughout the country, with moderate to severe deficits appearing throughout the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as central areas of the states of Durango and Nuevo Leon. 

  • Central Guatemala, with moderate deficits appearing near the Machaquila Reserve and continuing east into southern Belize. 

  • El Salvador, widespread throughout the country.  

  • Western and central regions of Panama, near the cities of San José de David and Santiago.

  • Northern to central Haiti, within the departments of Nord-Ouest, northern Centre, and Grand’Anse.

Surpluses are anticipated in:

  • Northern Baja California Sur, with a mix of exceptional surpluses and transitional conditions of equal intensity appearing near the town of San Ignacio. 

  • East-central Honduras, with moderate surpluses appearing west of the Sierra de Agalta National Park. 

  • South-central Nicaragua, appearing northeast of the Lago Cocibolca. Nearby in northwest Costa Rica, moderate to severe transitional conditions are expected to appear. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2023 mostly mild anomalies to normal conditions covering much of Mexico, with exceptional surpluses in northern Baja California Sur near the town of San Ignacio becoming transitional conditions of equal intensity. Intense surpluses are expected to become severe to extreme transitional conditions, mainly throughout eastern Honduras, southwestern Nicaragua, and northeastern Costa Rica.  

From July through September 2023, extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to appear across Central America, covering northwestern to central areas of Guatemala, western El Salvador, northeastern Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama. Surpluses in northern Baja California Sur are expected to linger.

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2023 – anticipates extreme to exceptional deficits in Central America to remain, but will downgrade to moderate to severe anomalies. Much of Mexico can expect normal conditions to have mild deficits. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought in Mexico is affecting global supply of the popular hot sauce Sriacha. Huy Fong Foods, the maker of Sriracha, stated that though it resumed some production of the sauce last fall, supply is scarce due to last year’s drought affecting growth of the chile used to make the sauce. The company stated that due to a shortage of the required ingredients, they have no estimation of when supply will increase, and that they cannot determine when the product will be in stock, or who currently has Sriracha in stock. 

A new study suggests that food scarcity in Central America’s rural regions is exacerbated when local food production declines, causing hostility in connected communities due to disruption of food trading. The study links drought, food scarcity, and urban conflict rates between 1996 to 2016 in cities along the country’s Pacific coast, which extends from southern Mexico to Panama and includes Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Lead author Martina Sardo, PhD student and research fellow at Politecnico di Milano, stated that the study is one of the first to quantitatively measure the impacts of climate-related food insecurity on conflict.

Engineers from University of Toronto are currently conducting research on how to expand access to potable water in low and middle-income communities in Mexico. By adopting solar-powered ultraviolet (UV) LED illumination to treat water in Mexico’s rainwater harvesting systems, researchers hope to kill bacteria, using UV light to damage and effectively inactivate harmful bacteria in the water. 

Mexico’s Ministry of National Defense and National Water Commission have developed plans to combat drought in Mexico City through the use of cloud-seeding. This process involves releasing an acetone solution containing silver iodide into clouds, producing rain. The announcement followed Mayor of Mexico City Claudia Sheinbaum’s statement that water pressure in the Valley of Mexico would be reduced until May due to low water levels in local reservoirs. Mexico’s National Water Commission reported that the Cutzamala Reservoir system was at 47.6 percent of its capacity, which is the lowest level recorded in its history. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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