Middle East: Water deficits, transitional conditions to persist throughout

Middle East: Water deficits, transitional conditions to persist throughout

30 March 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2023 indicates widespread deficits of varying intensity throughout much of the Middle East, with intense transitional conditions occurring in pockets throughout Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

Areas expecting exceptional deficits include:

  • Saudi Arabia, primarily within its southern regions, spreading east into Al Udayd.

  • Yemen, throughout much of the country, with the highest intensities spreading along the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden, and northeast into the Hadhramaut and Al Mahrah Governorate.

  • Western Turkey, through Istanbul, moving southeast into the Taurus Mountains and the city of Mersin.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

  • Central Turkey, near the city of Ankara.

  • United Arab Emirates, throughout the country.

  • Much of northeastern Iran, throughout the Razavi Khorasan Province.

  • Much of Lebanon, Qatar, and Bahrain.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in:

  • Southwestern Iran, in regions along the coast of the Persian Gulf.

  • Western Saudi Arabia, near the city of Al Madinah Al Munawwarah.

Deficits and transitional conditions are forecast in:

  • Central Saudi Arabia, throughout areas near the Al-Ahsa region, spreading south into western to central Yemen.

  • Central Iraq, west of Therthar Lake.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2023 indicates intense transitional conditions in Saudi Arabia to mostly subside. Mild transitional areas in its south-central region will continue, spreading into Yemen. Intense surpluses are expected to persist in central Syria and southwestern Iran, as are exceptional deficits in western Turkey.

From June through August 2023, much of the Middle East can expect mostly mild to moderate deficits, except for western Turkey and central to eastern Saudi Arabia, which are expected to experience exceptional deficits, including the Riyadh Province. A mixture of mild to moderate deficits and transitional conditions will persist in central Syria, and in pockets along the northern border of Yemen.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2023 – indicates that intense widespread deficits will persist in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, with transitional conditions and surpluses persisting in southeastern Iran and central Syria.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Northeastern Syria, known for its production of wheat crops, is experiencing intense drought for the third year in a row. Due to over a month of a lack of sufficient rainfall, the amount of sufficient farming areas are dwindling, further decreasing the area’s what crop yields. Experts and local farmers state that these regions have witnessed the driest winter in a few decades.

On March 21st, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani and agreed to double the amount of water released from dams on the Tigris River in an effort to replenish Iraq’s water supply. Both Iraq and northeastern Syria depend on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers for water, and have noticed a significant decrease in the rivers’ water levels. Current projections anticipate that both rivers will be dry by 2040. 

After Turkish officials released water from the dams, water flow in the Tigris doubled. Due to the initiative’s success, Iraq’s Minister of Water Resources called on Turkish officials on March 23rd to release more water from the dams built across both the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. Iraq ranks as the fifth-most vulnerable country in the world to climate change, and its drought conditions have been exacerbated by Turkish and Iranian dams built on rivers that flow into Iraq, which cut off the nation from vital water supplies. 

According to reports from the General Directorate of Meteorology of the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, Turkey is experiencing similarly intense droughts across the country. The reports detailed several drought-stricken areas, reporting many areas of the country experiencing severe drought, ranging from severe and extraordinary.

On March 23rd, Saudi Arabian officials detailed plans to address the growing problem of water scarcity throughout the region. Officials are working to provide accessible drinking water by establishing recycling and management processes that reduce environmental impact. Abdulaziz Al-Shaibani, the deputy minister for water affairs at the Saudi Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture, said the country is working hard to replenish water supplies by reducing the environmental impact of extraordinary processes such as desalination.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.