Australia & New Zealand: Water surpluses to persist in SE Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Water surpluses to persist in SE Australia

30 March 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2023 indicates pockets of intense anomalies scattered throughout the continent of Australia, primarily along coastal areas and eastern provinces.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • New South Wales, with the most intense anomalies occurring in the central regions.

  • Southwestern Western Australia, in a small pocket east of the Dwellingup State Forest. Northern sections of this region can anticipate severe surpluses, particularly throughout the Dampier Peninsula.

  • Northeastern Queensland, appearing near the town of Collinsville.

  • Northern New Zealand, in the northernmost area of Northland, moving through Te Kao into Auckland, and continuing along the coast of the Karikari Peninsula, into the Bay of Plenty and Hawke’s Bay.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Queensland, at the base of the Yorke Peninsula near the city of Townsville. Further south, regions west of Brisbane are expected to endure similarly intense deficits.

  • Coastal areas in the southwestern tip of Western Australia.

  • Western Tasmania, in nearby coastal regions.

  • Southern New Zealand, covering much of Southland.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2023 indicates that surpluses in southeastern Australia will persist, though much of the anomalies in New South Wales will change to intense transitional conditions. Surpluses in northern New Zealand are expected to remain, as are intense deficits in southwestern New Zealand. Deficits in Tasmania are expected to lessen into mild to moderate deficits. Regions west of Brisbane are expected to endure persistent deficits, primarily of extreme intensity.

From June through August 2023, intense surpluses are expected to re-emerge throughout southeastern Australia. Coastal regions in northwestern Western Australia near the Dwellingup State Forest can expect moderate surpluses to persist, as well as near the town of Katherine. Deficits are expected to continue in Victoria, near Melbourne, throughout Tasmania, and southern New Zealand.

The forecast for the final months –September through November 2023 – anticipates intense surpluses in southeastern Australia to linger, with pockets of severe deficits emerging in southeast Tasmania.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Officials in the Queensland region of Australia evacuated citizens to safety as record-breaking rainfall flooded the region’s northwestern areas on March 11th. Burketown, a small northern community 1,300 miles northwest of Brisbane was hit particularly hard, submerging roads and houses. Some individuals reported sightings of large crocodiles within the floodwaters, which reached record levels, surpassing the previous record of 6.78 meters recorded in 2011.

Millions of dead fish washed up in southeastern Australia earlier this month, with scientists blaming hot weather and flooding for the mass die-off. Experts from the Department of Primary Industries stated that the fish deaths coincided with a heat wave, adding stress to systems that have previously experienced wide-scale flooding. The deaths were likely caused by low oxygen levels as floods recede, a situation made worse by fish needing more oxygen because of the warmer weather, the department said.

Rainfall in southern New Zealand has been scarce, causing local farmers to worry about the threat of climate change. Reports from The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research showed parts of coastal South Otago and Southland as very dry, though the soil moisture had increased dramatically over the past two weeks. Federated Farmers Otago president Mark Patterson voiced concern over feelings of being ignored by their government, stating that there was no official declaration of a drought. “Despite what people might think, we are listening to what the climate scientists are telling us and it is getting drier in the summers here and our winters are getting milder.” said Patterson.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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