Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Widespread deficits to continue throughout Mexico

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Widespread deficits to continue throughout Mexico

27 March 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2023 indicates anomalies of mostly mild to moderate intensity throughout Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. Mild to moderate deficits are expected throughout the majority of Mexico, while pockets of surpluses are expected to occur throughout the Caribbean and Central America.

Areas experiencing moderate to severe surpluses include:

  • Central regions of Baja California Sur, with some occurrences of exceptional surplus.

  • Central Panama, west of Panama City.

  • Northwestern Costa Rica, near the cities of Liberia and Santa Cruz.

  • Central Nicaragua, northeast of Lake Nicaragua.

  • East-central Honduras, near the city of Juticalpa.

Extreme to exceptional deficits can be expected in:

  • Central areas of Baja California.

  • Southern Mexico, in an isolated area west of Mexico City.

Mild to moderate deficits are anticipated in:

  • Mexico, widespread throughout the country.

  • Central Guatemala into El Salvador.

  • Northern regions of Baja California Sur.

  • Northeastern coastal areas of Haiti.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits to emerge throughout western coastal regions of Mexico, with mild to moderate deficits occurring across the rest of the country, and intense transitional conditions in central California Baja Sur. Surpluses of severe to extreme intensity will emerge in small pockets of southern Mexico and throughout Central America, spanning the majority of regions in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Transitional conditions are expected to persist in central Panama.

From June through August 2023, major anomalies throughout Mexico are expected to dissipate into normal conditions or mild deficits, though transitional conditions in central Baja California Sur are expected to continue. Surpluses throughout Central America are forecast to become mild to moderate deficits.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2023 – expects moderate to severe deficits to emerge in central and southern Guatemala, El Salvador, and northwestern Honduras. Transitional conditions in central Baja California Sur are expected to linger, with some anomalies becoming exceptional surpluses. Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As of March 18th, more than 80% of Mexico is experiencing water scarcity, with over half of the nation observing varying levels of drought. Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and Michoacán are among the states that are worst affected. In Nuevo León, officials submitted a request to the federal government for an official declaration of an emergency, reporting that at least four of the state’s municipalities suffer from extreme drought, while the rest of the cities are experiencing moderate to severe drought. In Tamaulipas, officials reported water scarcity in ten municipalities, claiming it is the worst drought the area has experienced in 40 years. Several reservoirs in the area, including the Vicente Guerrero dam, which is one of the largest dams in the country, is at 15% of its total capacity. Similarly, the Pedro Mendez dam is at 17% of its total capacity. In Michoacán, the authorities declared an extreme drought in 15 cities. Officials reported that several basins cannot be used for consumption due to high levels of contamination.

The Haitian town of Pestel is experiencing a severe drought which has lasted for four months, destroying crops and killing citizens’ livestock. Of Pestel’s population of 44,659, according to a 2015 census, at least 500 residents in the provincial town have filed a complaint to the city hall officials about losing crops, animals and access to potable water. Locals have reported the area’s existing water becoming stagnant, causing physical ailments in citizens who have either drank or used it to bathe. One local farmer reported major losses in pea crop yields and livestock deaths. “My pea crops cannot grow because there is no rain,” said Louisius Saint-Pierre, a 60-year-old native. “My animals started dying because there is no grass to feed them and whatever small amount of water available is not close here.” No data is yet available for the total number of crops destroyed, animals killed and population affected by the drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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