South America: Deficits to persist in pockets throughout Southern Cone

South America: Deficits to persist in pockets throughout Southern Cone

24 March 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2023 indicates intense deficits scattered throughout the continent. Small pockets of similarly intense deficits are also anticipated throughout several countries in central South America.

Exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

  • Northwestern Venezuela, near the city of Barquisimeto.
    Southern Bolivia, south of the city of Santa Cruz de la Sierra.

  • Central Peru, starting in Lima and moving west into the Isconahua Indigenous Reserve.

  • Pockets throughout western into central Brazil, appearing through Acre into southern Amazonas, Para, Mato Grosso, and Mato Grosso Do Sul.

  • Southern Chile, widespread throughout the region, intensifying near Santiago and spreading south into Patagonia.

  • Along the eastern border of Argentina near Buenos Aires, continuing to spread throughout Uruguay.

Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for:

  • Northern and southern Peru, near the Zona Reservada Santiago-Comaina and the city of Arequipa.

  • Northern into central Chile, widespread throughout the entire area.

  • Southeastern Argentina, throughout the Rio de la Plata.

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are predicted in:

  • Northern Colombia, primarily in coastal regions east of the city of Barranquilla.

  • Southeastern Peru, near Lake Titicaca.

  • Coastal regions of eastern Argentina, near the city of Puerto Madryn.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits in eastern Argentina and the Pampas to subside, turning into mostly moderate deficits in the eastern regions, Uruguay, and southern areas of Brazil. Exceptional deficits in northwestern Venezuela, southern Chile, and western Brazil are expected to persist. Northern and western Colombia, northern Brazil, southern Venezuela, and the Guianas can expect moderate deficits.

From June through August 2023, most intense anomalies are expected to disappear, with the exception of intense deficits continuing in eastern Brazil and northern Chile. These deficits travel further north into south-central Peru, lessening in intensity to moderate to severe deficits. While isolated areas of northern Argentina are expected to endure persisting surpluses, much of the rest of the continent will observe normal conditions to mild deficits.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2023 – anticipates moderate to severe deficits spread throughout southern Peru, Colombia, and into the Guianas, with some mild deficits in northern and northeastern Brazil. Regions along the borders of Bolivia and Chile are expected to experience exceptional deficits. Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Argentina’s current summer is reportedly the driest on record, with temperatures in east-central regions reaching 14 to 18 degrees above normal during the first ten days of March. Climatologist Maximiliano Herrara stated that the country has never before experienced climate patterns of such length and intensity. Argentina and Brazil’s intense heatwave and dry conditions has been driven by La Niña, which has lasted for three years before ending as of last week. Though La Niña is disappearing, current seasons’ crop yields of soybean and corn are still affected. In the agricultural provinces of Córdoba, Santa Fe, and Northern Buenos Aires, crop analysts stated that the heat has been extremely detrimental to corn and soybean crops. Crop analyst Mickaël Attia expects national corn and soybean production to be at least 20-30% lower than last year. Wheat exports are also projected to fall 28% in 2023 compared to last year, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

To cope with dwindling wheat production, both Argentina and Brazil recently approved cultivation of a drought resistant, genetically modified wheat known as HB4. In a statement, BioceresCrop solutions confirmed that Brazil had concluded a safety evaluation of HB4, fully approving its cultivation and commercialization in the country. Brazil has grown domestic wheat using conventional plants adapted to local climate conditions, but still relies on supplier Argentina for substantial imports. Brazil plants nearly 7.4 million acres of wheat crops, mostly in southern states like Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná. Drought-resistant wheat may be helpful to farmers in that region, where crops such as corn and soybeans have recently faced water stress.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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