United States: Water deficits across the south, esp TX

18 March 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending November indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in many regions of the U.S. including the West, Southwest, Rockies, Central and Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and South Atlantic. Surpluses are forecast in the Ohio River Watershed and the border region shared by Minnesota and the Dakotas.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected throughout much of Texas and in the Oklahoma Panhandle, Louisiana, and large pockets of the Southwest and SoCal. The Central Plains can expect deficits of varying intensity as can the Rockies and Oregon. Deficits in NorCal will be mild to moderate though severe pockets are forecast near Sacramento and San Francisco. In Washington State, surpluses are expected near Puget Sound and in the Bellingham region.

On the East Coast, severe to exceptional deficits will reach from Virginia to the Congaree River in South Carolina before downgrading through Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, then becoming intense through most of Peninsular Florida. In the Northeast, generally moderate deficits are forecast from Boston to Augusta, Maine.

Surpluses, primarily moderate, are forecast in the Ohio River Watershed, particularly in Indiana and Ohio, and in pockets of southeastern Michigan and near Buffalo and Rochester, NY. In the Upper Midwest, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in a column spanning the border region shared by Minnesota and the Dakotas, and some scattered pockets of moderate deficit are predicted for northern Minnesota and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.

Outside the contiguous U.S., surpluses are forecast in Hawaii. Alaska can expect deficits in the northeast and surpluses near Juneau and Nome, west of Bethel, and reaching from the Alaska Peninsula inland to the Kuskokwim River.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May indicates widespread, exceptional deficits in Texas and many areas of Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Arizona. Nebraska and Kansas can expect moderate to extreme deficits, mixed conditions are forecast throughout the Rocky Mountain States, and moderate to severe deficits in California. In Washington State, surpluses, primarily moderate, are forecast from Seattle to the Canadian border. Deficits will remain intense in Idaho’s Salmon River Mountains but will shrink considerably in western Montana. In the Northern Plains, surpluses will increase along the shared border of Minnesota and the Dakotas, emerging in the Red River Watershed. Deficits are expected in northeastern Minnesota and pockets reaching into Michigan’s Upper Peninsula; surpluses in southern Michigan will downgrade considerably. In the Ohio River Watershed, surpluses will be moderate to severe in the north while downgrading to mild in Kentucky and Tennessee. West Virginia will transition from deficit to surplus, and surpluses will reach into western Pennsylvania and western New York. In New England, surpluses will emerge in eastern Maine as anomalies elsewhere shrink. Deficits will shrink in the South Atlantic States but increase in the Deep South, Florida, and Gulf Coast and will be particularly widespread and intense in Florida.

From June through August, surpluses will retreat from the Ohio River Basin and shrink and moderate from the Dakotas into Minnesota. Widespread deficits are expected in much of the West, Rockies, Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi, Gulf Coast, and South Atlantic. Though deficits will be moderate overall, many intense pockets are expected in the West, Rockies, and Southern Plains, particularly in California, Utah, the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, and the Hill Country of Texas. Some mild deficits are expected to emerge in New England.

The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates deficits in New England, the Carolinas, Louisiana, Central Plains, and Rockies. Surpluses in the Dakotas will shrink.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On 15 March, the water level in Lake Powell, one of the two largest reservoirs on the Colorado River, measured 3,524.93, a mere 35 feet above the minimum level of 3,490 required for power generation. The reservoir’s hydroelectric dam, Glen Canyon Dam, provides power to over three million people in more than seven states. Snowmelt could help replenish some of the critical water supply but the ongoing drought in the West has created conditions where the arid soil could suck up that moisture like a sponge before it has a chance to reach the Colorado River.

Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada range is at just 64 percent of its historical average, threatening the water supply for almost a third of California. The governor’s office has announced a $2.2 billion drought response package to help address California’s water needs.

Last year’s drought cost the California agricultural industry around $1.1 billion, a figure that could rise to $1.7 billion with the inclusion of impacts on other sectors of the economy.

Drought in the southern Plains States is creating concern over the wheat crop, with global supplies suppressed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas were classified in severe drought in early March as global wheat futures climbed to the highest in 14 years.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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