Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Widespread, intense water deficit in N Mexico

18 March 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending November indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in the Baja Peninsula and Mexico’s north-central and northeastern states. Anomalies will be severe to exceptional in central Baja, the Colorado River Delta, and from eastern Chihuahua through Coahuila and northern Nuevo León into Tamaulipas on the Gulf of Mexico.

Some pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in Veracruz, intensifying in the land-locked state of San Luis Potosi. Yucatán State on its namesake peninsula can expect moderate deficits. A small pocket of surplus is forecast in Chiapas surrounding the Nezahualcóyotl (Malpaso) Reservoir.

In Central America, pockets of primarily moderate surplus are expected in Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western Panama. In the Caribbean, surpluses will be intense in Jamaica and Cuba, and moderate to severe in the central Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May indicates the emergence of widespread, exceptional deficits in northern Mexico, southern Baja, and along the Pacific Coast through Sinaloa into coastal Jalisco. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in a broad path through northeastern states along the Gulf of Mexico from Tamaulipas into Veracruz and land-locked San Luis Potosi. Central Mexico can expect mixed conditions with some surpluses in Zacatecas, the Federal District, and along the west coast from Michoacan to Acapulco. Surpluses are also forecast in the south in Chiapas where anomalies will be exceptional near the Nezahualcóyotl Reservoir. A pocket of exceptional deficit is forecast in central Campeche State in the Yucatán. In Central America, widespread surpluses will persist in Guatemala and Nicaragua, and surpluses will increase in Costa Rica, Panama, Belize, and pockets in Guatemala. In the Caribbean, intense surpluses are expected in Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas. Deficits will retreat from Hispaniola.

From June through August, deficits in Mexico are expected to shrink and downgrade considerably, leaving deficits of varying intensity in Coahuila and generally moderate deficits in Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, eastern Chihuahua, and Baja. Moderate surpluses will emerge in the Yaqui/Bavispe River Watersheds of northeastern Sonora, in southern Durango, and in pockets near the Pacific Coast from Jalisco through western Oaxaca. Surpluses will shrink considerably in Central America, downgrade in Jamaica and Cuba, and retreat from the Bahamas.

The forecast for the final three months – September through November – indicates deficits of varying intensity Mexico’s northeastern states and pockets in the north. Some pockets of moderate deficit are expected in northern Central America and moderate surpluses in Panama. Surpluses will linger in Cuba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Mexico’s national water commission, Conagua, reports that over 66 percent of the county is in drought.

In an effort to curb water usage in the drought-stricken state of Nuevo León, the region’s water authority has introduced both compensatory and voluntary water conservation tactics. Water rationing has been in effect since early February when the state declared an emergency, but now various financial fees are being levied. Usage and treatment rates will rise by 10 to 25 percent for domestic and commercial users, and the utility will install water-reduction devices in some homes.

Ranchers in Nuevo León say the drought could result in a 50 percent reduction in the herd, some 300 head of cattle.

In the neighboring state of Coahuila, over half of the municipalities are in severe or extreme drought, and remaining regions in drought stages of lesser intensity. La Amistad Dam, which provides hydropower and irrigation to Coahuila as well as users in the U.S., was at 15 percent capacity in early March. The Venustiano Carranza dam, the region’s second largest, was at 14 percent.

Torrential rainfall in early February caused widespread flooding in the Jamaican coastal town of Port Marie. The government has earmarked $10 million for flood cleanup and repair and an early warning system.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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