Canada: Widespread water deficits in the east

25 February 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through October indicates widespread water deficits in the eastern half of the nation. Deficits will be exceptional in southern Newfoundland, the Miramichi River watershed in east-central New Brunswick, the Smallwood Reservoir region in Labrador, the Manicouagan Reservoir region in Quebec and from Gouin Reservoir past Lake Mistassini, and the lower Saint-Maurice River region as it empties into the St. Lawrence between Montreal and Quebec City.

Deficits of lesser intensity are expected in much of Southern Ontario though a belt of surplus is forecast west of Toronto. Exceptional deficits are expected in a broad column along Ontario’s eastern border reaching James Bay. Deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario and will include exceptional anomalies in Kenora District.

In the Prairie Provinces, nearly normal conditions are forecast across the south with deficits east of Winnipeg. Exceptional deficits will belt central Manitoba and are also forecast in the province’s northeast reaching Hudson Bay. Central Saskatchewan can expect deficits, but surpluses are forecast in the northwest quadrant leading west to Fort McMurray, Alberta. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in the Middle Athabasca River region in Alberta, surpluses near Banff, and exceptional deficits in the province’s northwest.

Surpluses are forecast in the Thompson River watershed of southern British Columbia and deficits at opposite ends of the province’s southern region in Vancouver Island and in East Kootenay. The Upper Fraser River Watershed will see intense deficits as will much of British Columbia’s far north, moderating as they reach well into Yukon.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April indicates conditions much like those observed in the prior three months: vast areas of deficit, less pervasive in the southern region of the Prairie Provinces, and surpluses west of Toronto, in southern British Columbia, and from northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta. Surpluses in southern British Columbia will shrink. The forecast for the major metropolitan areas includes intense deficits from Montreal halfway to Quebec City; intense deficits west of Ottawa; moderate to severe surpluses near Toronto; moderate to severe deficits near Winnipeg; deficits west of Regina and north of Calgary; and near-normal conditions in Vancouver but deficits on Vancouver Island.

From May through July, deficits will shrink overall in the Prairie Provinces, retreating from southern regions. Deficits will also retreat between Montreal and Québec City and surpluses near Toronto will shrink. Surpluses in eastern Labrador and nearby regions of Quebec will disappear, transitioning to deficit in some areas. Moderate deficits will emerge on the Gaspé Peninsula. Surpluses will increase in southern British Columbia and deficits will retreat from Vancouver Island and shrink in the Upper Fraser River Watershed and in the province’s northern half.

The forecast for the final months – August through October – indicates that deficits in the eastern half of the nation will downgrade but remain widespread. Near-normal conditions are forecast in the southern region of the Prairie Provinces, but pockets of deficit will persist in central and northern Alberta and British Columbia, and intense surpluses in from Saskatchewan’s northwest quadrant into Alberta. Some areas of surplus will linger in southern British Columbia in the Middle Fraser River Watershed and Okanagan region.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Ranchers in the Canadian Prairie Provinces continue to scramble for cattle feed after drought last summer dried up pastures. One Alberta feedlot owner reported having just a five-day supply of feed at the end of January, a stark shortage from the normal supply of 14 to 30 days. An industry expert estimates that 75 percent of the feedlots, responsible for 1.5 million head, are running short.

In early February, Manitoba expanded its drought assistance program for livestock feed and transportation. The program now includes expenditures for pasture rental, fencing, and long-distance hauling of water and feed.

Saskatchewan’s plans for a canola crusher and renewable diesel plant, celebrated as a generator of employment opportunities in a lower-carbon emissions sector, may face difficulties if the province encounters drought in the future similar to last year’s. As drought suppresses crop production, the plant could compete with canola destined for cooking oils and animal feed, driving up food costs.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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