Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits will increase in Mexico

24 February 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending October indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in Mexico’s north-central and northeastern states and in the Baja Peninsula. Anomalies will be severe to exceptional in central Baja, the Colorado River Delta, eastern Chihuahua, Coahuila, and northern Nuevo León.

Moderate deficits are forecast in Tamaulipas on the Gulf of Mexico, becoming severe in northern Veracruz. Yucatán State on its namesake peninsula can expect moderate deficits. Some pockets of moderate surplus are forecast from southern Durango into Zacatecas, in coastal Michoacán, and in Oaxaca.

In Central America, primarily moderate surpluses are expected in Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and small pockets of Panama, Guatemala, and Belize. In the Caribbean, surpluses will be intense in Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas. Moderate deficits are forecast in pockets of Dominican Republic and Haiti.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April indicates the emergence of exceptional deficits in Jalisco on Mexico’s west coast with anomalies reaching into nearby states. Deficits will increase in north-central Mexico becoming widespread though exceptional deficits will shrink. Deficits will be severe to exceptional in southern Chihuahua and pockets of exceptional deficit are expected in central Coahuila and eastern Durango. Moderate deficits will increase from Nuevo León into northern Veracruz. On the Baja Peninsula, exceptional deficits will shrink and downgrade, but moderate deficits will increase. Pockets of surplus will linger surrounding the Federal District in the center of the country and in pockets of the south including Chiapas. In Campeche on the Yucatán, a pocket of exceptional deficit will increase.

Widespread surpluses are forecast in Central America from Honduras into northern Costa Rica, and pockets of surplus are expected in Belize and Guatemala. Intense surpluses are forecast for Jamaica, central and eastern Cuba, and the central Bahamas, though transitions are also expected as deficits emerge. Deficits in Hispaniola will nearly disappear.

From May through July, deficits in Mexico will shrink and downgrade considerably, leaving moderate deficits in Baja and deficits of varying intensity in Chihuahua and Coahuila. Moderate surpluses will emerge in a broad path along the Pacific Coast from Sinaloa and Durango into Michoacán, transitioning from intense deficit in Jalisco. Surpluses will re-emerge in Zacatecas in the center of the country and emerge in the south from Guerrero into Oaxaca, while surpluses in Chiapas shrink. Some pockets of moderate surplus will persist in Central America and intense surpluses in Cuba and Jamaica. Surpluses in the Bahamas will moderate.

The forecast for the final three months – August through October – indicates generally moderate deficits in Baja California and moderate to severe deficits in Chihuahua and Belize. Surpluses will linger in Durango, Costa Rica, Panama, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A state of emergency has been declared in Mexico’s northern state of Nuevo Leon due to extreme drought. Residents have been instructed to reduce household water use by switching from baths to short showers, limit toilet flushing, and water gardens in the morning or not at all.

The drought has left the Boca Dam in Nuevo Leon at just 22 percent of capacity and turned the dry reservoir bottom into a grisly graveyard. Authorities are searching for evidence that organized crime cartels used the location to dump bodies or to execute victims in the dam’s depths, now strewn with cement-filled buckets.

Relentless rainfall lasting several days caused flooding in Haiti that left three people dead at the beginning of the month. Many of Cap-Haitien’s city streets flowed like the nearby rivers that had burst their banks. Thousands of people were evacuated.

Hundreds of Honduran families evacuated after torrential rainfall pushed the Leán River above the flood mark, inundating a major connector route and causing power outages.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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