Europe: Water deficits will increase in Spain & Portugal

24 January 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September indicates widespread, intense water deficits in the Iberian Peninsula. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for southwestern Spain and Portugal, with deficits of varying intensity along a broad path following Spain’s Mediterranean Coast. Anomalies will be exceptional in Seville and Lisbon.

In France, deficits are forecast for much of the country’s southern half and pockets of the north including Normandy. Deficits will be moderate overall but more intense along the Mediterranean Coast, surrounding Limoges, and in Corsica. Deficits are also expected in much of northern Italy, along the Tyrrhenian Coast, and in the southernmost Apennine Mountains. Intense surpluses are forecast in the Pindus Mountains of Greece, but exceptional deficits are forecast for the southern tips of the Peloponnese Peninsula. Northern Serbia will see surpluses, and pockets of surplus are forecast in northern Romania.

Some isolated pockets of moderate deficit are expected in Central and Eastern Europe including north-central Germany and western Hungary, but deficits will be more widespread in Ukraine spreading from Zhytomyr Oblast. Deficits will be exceptional in southern Belgium, but moderate surpluses are forecast surrounding Brussels. Pockets of surplus are also expected in Ireland and the U.K., primarily in Scotland.

Northern Europe can expect exceptional water deficits in central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed, moderating as they reach south. Intense deficits are also forecast in Estonia, downgrading in Latvia. Surpluses are forecast in Iceland, Norrbotten region of Sweden, around the Gulf of Bothnia into Finland, and Murmansk, Russia. Elsewhere in European Russia, surpluses are expected in the north, moderate overall but severe in the Vychegda Lowland and extreme near Rybinsk Reservoir. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Middle Volga River Watershed.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through March indicates widespread water surpluses in western European Russia with extreme to exceptional anomalies from Lake Ladoga well past Rybinsk Reservoir, and in the Middle Volga region and northern Vychegda Lowland. Surpluses are also expected in Murmansk, Russia; southern Finland; Norrbotten region, Indalsalven River region, and south of Lake Vattern in Sweden; southern Norway; and Iceland. Intense deficits are forecast in Northern Norway’s Tromso; and western Västerbotten County and the Upper Dalälven River Watershed in Sweden. Deficits will downgrade in Estonia and shrink in Latvia. Surpluses will emerge in Lithuania, Belarus, Ireland, Scotland, and northern England, and increase in Denmark. Pockets of surplus will emerge in Central Europe, particularly Switzerland. Other areas of surplus include Romania, northern Serbia, and western Bulgaria. Deficits are forecast in western, southern, and Normandy, France; Portugal and southern and northeastern Spain; and several regions of Italy. Anomalies will be intense in Limoges and Extremadura. Deficits elsewhere include southern Belgium, and pockets of north-central Germany, southwestern Poland, and parts of Slovenia, Hungary, and Croatia.

From April through June, surpluses will shrink considerably in western European Russia but increase in the north. Surpluses are forecast around the Gulf of Bothnia, south-central Norway, and Iceland, and some pockets will linger in northern Great Britain. Intense deficits are forecast in Estonia, eastern Latvia, and central Sweden. Near-normal conditions will return to much of Central and Eastern Europe though some pockets of deficit will emerge in Ukraine and persist in central Europe. Deficits will shrink in France and downgrade but persist in Italy and the Iberian Peninsula.

The forecast for July through September indicates deficits in the Iberian Peninsula, France, Italy, and southern Nordic Europe, with intense deficits in Spain and Sweden. Surpluses will shrink considerably.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall in southwestern France produced flooding that prompted evacuations and claimed one life. In early January, the Salat River in Saint Girons reached its highest level in 30 years and the Garonne River in Toulouse rose to its highest in over 20 years. Hundreds of students were evacuated from university housing in Toulouse and the stadium flooded. Many roads in nearby regions were closed. Augirein in Ariège Department recorded 155.4 millimeter (6 inches) of rainfall in just 36 hours.

Flood alerts were issued for the West Midlands region in England during the first week of January on the heels of late December flooding in Cambridgeshire in the East of England where the River Delph burst its banks, inundating nearby fields. In the North of England and Scotland, precipitation took the form of heavy snowfall, closing a major highway that was littered with stranded vehicles. Several schools were closed in Scotland.

Six months after unprecedented flooding in Germany left over 180 people dead, authorities are investigating a mining operation in Erfstadt where a landslide occurred. Negligence is suspected in conditions at the mine’s flood protection embankment and pit embankment.

Drought in January is becoming the new normal in Portugal, according to one environmental group, noting that water storage in the Algarve’s Barlavento, Mira, and Sado rivers as well as rivers in the north is around 20 percent.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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