East Asia: Widespread water surplus in NE China, Yellow River, DPRK

24 January 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through September indicates widespread severe to exceptional water surpluses in Northeast China from the Bohai Sea to the Russian border. This wide path of surplus will continue south through the North China Plain and the vast Yellow River (Huang He) Watershed. In the Yangtze River region, surpluses will be widespread in the northern portion of the river’s middle reaches.

Southeast China can expect relatively normal conditions with some deficits in Fujian and in western Taiwan. Moderate deficits are forecast for a pocket in northwestern Hunan and in northwestern Yunnan, though surpluses are forecast in central and eastern Yunnan. Surpluses and mixed conditions are expected in Tibet (Xizang) with exceptional surpluses on the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River. Deficits are expected in central Xinjiang, exceptional along parts of the Tarim River. Deficits will be intense as well in northwestern Qinghai reaching through northwestern Gansu into western Inner Mongolia.

In Mongolia, deficits are forecast in the western Gobi Desert and in the lakes region of the nation’s northwest. Surpluses are forecast surrounding Lake Khovsgol in the north, and in the central Hangayn Mountains and the central Hentiyn Mountains. Surpluses will be widespread in North Korea and will include severe to extreme anomalies. Some moderate surpluses are forecast for South Korea. Japan can expect near-normal water conditions with some isolated coastal anomalies.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March indicates persistent, widespread, extreme to exceptional surpluses from Northeast China through the North China Plain and much of the vast Yellow River Basin. In the Yangtze River region, surpluses will be widespread and intense in the northern portion of the basin from the Gorges into central Sichuan, but some moderate deficits will emerge in the river’s lower path, and deficits in northern Hunan will intensify, becoming severe. In Southeast China, the extent of deficits will diminish but the intensity will increase, with exceptional anomalies expected in coastal Guangdong.

Deficits are also forecast from northern Yunnan into Sichuan - though transitions are also expected - and in a pocket of northeastern Yunnan. Surpluses are forecast in central Yunnan and throughout most of Tibet. Widespread, extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in North Korea, and mild deficits will emerge in the southern reaches of the peninsula. Surpluses and transitional conditions are forecast for Hokkaido, Japan, and near-normal conditions for the remainder of the nation with some lingering surpluses in northern Honshu. In Mongolia, surpluses are forecast in the north surrounding Lake Khovsgol, in the Hentiyn and central Hangayn Mountains, the southern Gobi Desert, and along the Kerulen River; deficits are expected in the west.

From April through June, widespread surpluses will persist in China in a distribution pattern like the prior three months, but anomalies will shrink and downgrade somewhat and will nearly disappear in the Gorges region. Deficits will nearly disappear in Guangdong; moderate deficits are expected in Zhejiang and northern Hunan. Surpluses will emerge in eastern Yunnan and deficits in the province will shrink. Surpluses will shrink somewhat in Tibet. Deficits will increase in Xinjiang and from western Inner Mongolia well into Mongolia while conditions in western Mongolia normalize. Near-normal conditions are forecast for the Korean Peninsula. Northern Japan will transition from surplus to some pockets of moderate deficit.

The forecast for the final three months – July through September – indicates that surpluses will shrink and downgrade considerably in China but persist in the northeast, pockets throughout the Yellow River Watershed, Yunnan, and western Tibet, and will emerge in South Korea. Deficits are forecast in Xinjiang, western Inner Mongolia, and central Honshu, Japan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Last July’s flooding in Henan, China left nearly 400 people dead or missing. Chinese authorities have arrested eight public security officers in charge of subway and road construction on suspicion of culpability through dereliction and of underreporting the number of casualties. In addition, over 80 government employees have been punished for contributing to the disaster by failing their duties related to emergency response and water infrastructure. The flooding in Henan left £13.3 billion (USD $17.8 billion) in damages.

The World Food Organization confirmed that rice shortfall in North Korea totaled hundreds of thousands of tons in 2021, exacerbated by severe flooding. In early January 2022, Kim Jong Un, the nation’s leader, acknowledged food problems though not the scale, and emphasized the need to boost agricultural productivity.

In early January of this year, Taiwan began cloud-seeding operations in an attempt to maintain water levels in northern reservoirs and plans similar operations in the south. While water levels in major reservoirs are between 70 and 100 percent, forecasts indicate that Taiwan will receive below average precipitation in the 2022 rainy season.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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