East Asia: Intense water surplus will persist in NE China

17 August 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through April 2022 indicates widespread extreme to exceptional water surpluses in Northeast China in much of the vast Songhua River Watershed, extending north across the Russian border. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected throughout the North China Plain, more intense north of the Yellow (Huang He) River. Surpluses will be intense in the river’s upper basin in Qinghai and will follow the path of the Tongtian River.

In the Yangtze Basin, severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast in the lower watershed and the nearby Fuchan River watershed. Surpluses will be moderate along the path of the Middle Yangtze, but anomalies will be more intense in the Wu River region, a southern tributary, and the Jialing River region in the Sichuan Basin.

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In South and Southeast China, deficits are forecast in Guangdong and pockets of Taiwan and Hainan. Intense deficits along with some transitional conditions are expected from western Yunnan into Sichuan’s southern tip and into southeastern Tibet (Xizang). A pocket of moderate surplus is forecast near Kunming, Yunnan.

Mixed conditions are forecast for northern Tibet and exceptional surpluses in the west. Surpluses are also expected on the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River. Xinjiang in northwestern China will experience intense surpluses in the west and intense deficits in the east leading to exceptional deficits in western Inner Mongolia.

In Mongolia, normal conditions are expected in Ulaanbaatar, and deficits west of the city and in the eastern extreme of the Altai Mountains. Surpluses are forecast in many areas of the nation’s eastern half and in the north around Lake Khövsgöl.

Nearly normal conditions are forecast for the Korean Peninsula. Exceptional deficits are expected in Hokkaido, Japan, and moderate deficits in the Mogami River Watershed of Yamagata Prefecture in Honshu.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October indicates that surpluses will shrink considerably but many vast areas will persist. Widespread surpluses will continue in Northeast China and will remain intense though the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink. Deficits will increase in Jilin near the North Korean border. Surpluses will persist in the North China Plain, severe to extreme overall, and in the lower regions of the Yellow and Yangtze Watersheds, where some exceptional anomalies are expected. Moderate surpluses are forecast for the Jialing River region in the Sichuan Basin. Deficits in South and Southeast China will nearly disappear with conditions in Taiwan flipping from deficit to normal in the north and surplus in the south. Elsewhere in China, surpluses are forecast in western Tibet, much of Qinghai, and western Xinjiang. Deficits are forecast in eastern Xinjiang, western Inner Mongolia, and in Tibet’s southeastern corner. In Mongolia, pockets of surplus will persist in the north and east. Nearly normal conditions are expected in Korea and much of Japan, though intense deficits will persist in Hokkaido.

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From November 2021 through January 2022, surpluses will remain widespread in Northeast China, moderating in the north but remaining exceptional in the Songhua Watershed. Surpluses will persist in the North China Plain and Lower Yellow River region but will shrink and moderate in the Lower Yangtze region and Jialing River region. Moderate deficits will emerge in pockets of Hunan, Guizhou, and Guangxi, and transitional conditions are expected in Taiwan. Deficits will increase from eastern Xinjiang into western Inner Mongolia, reaching into Mongolia. Moderate deficits will emerge in South Korea. Conditions in Hokkaido will return to near-normal.

The forecast for the final three months – February through April 2022 – indicates deficits in North Korea, Fujian, and western Inner Mongolia and nearby regions. Areas of surplus include Northeast China, the North China Plain, and western Tibet.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
After months of devastating drought, parts of Taiwan were hit with torrential rainfall in early August causing agricultural losses of NT$210 million (US$7.5 million). Southern and central regions sustained the greatest losses to crop and livestock including damage to papaya, peanut, and longan crops and chickens, ducks, and pigs. Ten continuous days of rainfall succeeded in filling up Jiaming Lake in the Taitung Forest District, a popular tourist camping site, for the first time in two years.

Flooding in coastal northeastern regions of North Korea forced the evacuation of 5,000 people, damaging 1,000 homes. The city of Sinuiju in the northwest also flooded. Roads were damaged and power lost as heavy rainfall caused rivers to overflow.

Recent drought and excessive heat in North Korea damaged rice and corn crops and killed livestock, exacerbating the country’s seemingly perpetual food security issues. Rice reserves from the military have been released for public consumption to help alleviate food shortages estimated at about 1 million tons.

The death toll from last month’s flooding in Henan Province, China has risen to over 300 with 50 still unaccounted for. Nearly a year’s worth of rain fell during three days on the city of Zhengzhou where losses were heaviest. Over 230,000 flood-damaged cars line a parking lot now converted to an auto graveyard. Insurance claims of US$1.7 billion were filed for property damages and economic losses are estimated at US$20.65 billion.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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