Central Asia & Russia: Intense water deficits in C Asia will downgrade

Central Asia & Russia: Intense water deficits in C Asia will downgrade

17 August 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2022 indicates widespread exceptional water deficits throughout Uzbekistan, the Kazakh regions bordering Uzbekistan, and much of Turkmenistan.

Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Ishim River Watershed of northern Kazakhstan. Surpluses will also be exceptional southeast of Lake Balkhash while deficits are expected between the lake’s western end and Almaty. Central Tajikistan and much of Kyrgyzstan’s eastern half can expect intense surpluses.

West of the Ural Mountains in Russia, surpluses are forecast in the coastal Arctic and the Vychegda Lowlands, but deficits are expected in the Pechora River Watershed, Trans-Volga, and the Ural River Watershed. East of the Urals, intense deficits are forecast in the Tura River region, particularly around Tyumen, and in the north on the central banks of the Gulf of Ob. Surpluses will be exceptional on the Yenisei River and widespread throughout much of the river’s vast watershed and in the Upper Ob River region. In the Central Siberian Plateau, exceptional deficits are expected in the middle reaches of the Vilyuy River, a tributary of the Lena River, including the area surrounding the Vilyuy Reservoir. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the plateau’s northeast between the Olenyok and Markha Rivers.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October indicates that widespread exceptional deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and southwestern Kazakhstan will retreat leaving mild to moderate deficits. Likewise, the region between the western end of Lake Balkhash and Almaty in Kazakhstan will return to normal from prior intense deficit. Intense surpluses are expected to persist southeast of the lake and in the Ishim River Watershed in the nation’s north. Surpluses will persist in central Tajikistan and eastern Kyrgyzstan with moderate surpluses tracing a path along the Naryn River. In Russia, deficits in the Volga River Basin will shrink and downgrade, but intense deficits will persist in the Pechora River Watershed and deficits on the Mezen River will become extreme. In the Yenisei River Watershed, surpluses will downgrade overall but remain widespread. Deficits will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau though intense surpluses will persist in the northeast. Deficits will also increase in the northern Verhoyansk Range of Sakha Republic and will persist near the Sea of Okhotsk with intense surpluses between in the region of the Lower Alden River, a tributary of the Lena.

From November 2021 through January 2022, surpluses will increase somewhat in eastern Kyrgyzstan and will intensify on the Naryn River while moderating in central Tajikistan. Surpluses southeast of Lake Balkhash will increase, and while surpluses will persist in the Ishim Watershed of the north, deficits will also emerge. Intense surpluses will emerge in a pocket of western Turkmenistan on the Caspian Sea and in the Karakum Desert where the Harirud River disappears. In Russia, deficits in the Pechora and Volga Watersheds will shrink considerably, surpluses in the Upper Pur River region will become exceptional, and though shrinking, surpluses will remain widespread in the Yenisei Basin. Deficits in the Central Siberian Plateau will shrink and downgrade slightly and surpluses will persist in the northeast.

The forecast for the final months – February through April 2022 – indicates a distribution of anomalies much like the forecast through January. However, surpluses will increase in the Ob River Watershed and Kazakh Upland, and emerge in the Ural Watershed and Trans-Volga.  

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The drought in west Kazakhstan’s Mangistau Province has turned the region into a livestock graveyard, littered with the carcasses of over 1,000 horses, cattle, and sheep. As grazing land dried up, herders in the region resorted to feeding their stock cardboard until cardboard couldn’t be found. Horsemeat is a staple on the Kazakh dinner table. At the end of July, the agricultural ministry banned the export of animal feed. The country could lose up to 30 percent of its grain harvest this season, forecasts one national weather expert.

For the first time, smoke from Siberian wildfires has reached the North Pole. An image from Nasa on 6 August showed a blanket covering nearly all of Russia. Fires have destroyed about 10 million acres in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), and residents have been instructed to stay indoors to avoid air pollution and fire volunteers are equipped with respirators. The Siberian wildfires encompass more land that this season’s devastating fires in the U.S., Canada, Turkey, and Greece combined.

A fire in Russia’s southern Ural Mountains forced the evacuation of 830 people from a summer camp in Bashkortostan Republic, while heavy rainfall in Krasnodar region required the evacuation of 1,500 due to flooding, including nearly 1,000 children from five summer camps.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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