Middle East: Intense water deficits forecast in Riyadh

21 September 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending May 2022 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in Turkey, the Levant, and many regions on the Arabian Peninsula.

Deficits in Turkey include exceptional anomalies south of the Byk Menderes River in the west, the central southern coast (Taurus Mountains), and the Murat River Watershed in the east reaching past Lake Van. Intense deficits are forecast in Georgia north of the Mtkvari (Kura) River including exceptional anomalies in Batumi on the coast and severe anomalies in Tbilisi. A pocket of surplus is expected in the Lesser Caucasus Region south of the river.

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Deficits will be severe in the coastal Levant and will reach exceptional intensity in many other areas of the region including Jordan and Iraq west of the Euphrates River. Intense deficits are expected in the bulk of Saudi Arabia though transitional conditions (pink/purple) and some pockets of surplus are forecast in the southwest. Exceptional deficits will dominate United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. Mixed conditions are forecast in Yemen including intense deficits near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

In Iran, severe deficits are expected in much of Esfahan Province in the center of the country, moderating as they reach the Afghan and Turkmen borders and mingling with transitional conditions. Deficits are forecast along the northern Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz. In the nation’s southeast, surpluses are forecast in the northern half of Sistan and Baluchestan Province seeping west into Kerman.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through November indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade in Turkey and the Levant but will remain intense in a path following the Byk Menderes River in western Turkey to Beysehir Lake. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for much of Georgia. West of the Euphrates River in Iraq, deficits will be moderate, but exceptional anomalies will emerge at the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates. In Saudi Arabia, deficits on the Red Sea will moderate but exceptional anomalies will emerge in the northern half of Riyadh Province reaching into neighboring provinces. Further south, transitional conditions are forecast leading into Yemen. Moderate deficits will emerge in Yemen and southern Oman, but intense surpluses will persist in Yemen northwest of Sanaa. In Iran, moderate deficits are expected throughout the bulk of the nation from the Persian Gulf to the Turkmen border with some pockets of greater intensity in the northeast and in southern Fars near the Persian Gulf. Small pockets of surplus will persist near Tehran and Lake Urmia.

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From December 2021 through February 2022, deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably. Intense pockets are forecast in central Turkey and pockets of lesser intensity will linger in the northeast and in coastal Georgia. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in southern Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, and a few pockets in the nation’s north. Moderate deficits will linger in southwestern Yemen while exceptional surpluses persist in the northwest and re-emerge along its central Saudi border. Exceptional surpluses will also re-emerge in central Syria, near Mosul in Iraq, and in northeastern Iran. Surpluses will persist near Lake Urmia and Tehran.

In the final quarter – March through May 2022 – deficits will increase on the Arabian Peninsula, moderate to severe in Riyadh Province but more intense in southeastern Saudi Arabia and a pocket in southern Oman. Surpluses will shrink and mild deficits are forecast in the Levant and some pockets of moderate deficit in Turkey.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought has contributed to a 50 percent decline in Iran’s hydroelectricity production over the last several years from 12,000 MW in 2019 to current production of 6,000 MW. Facing shortages of natural gas to compensate, the nation is turning to dirtier sources of liquid fuel like mazut, a heavy oil that creates polluting smog and increases greenhouse gas emissions.

This summer’s power outages - blamed on drought, increased consumption, and illegal cryptocurrency mining - have cost the Iranian steel industry $6 billion dollars in lost production.

Agricultural production has also declined due to drought. For the second time in several months, industry experts have reduced estimates for cotton output, stating that production will be around 60,000 tons this year compared to last year’s 270,000 tons. Rice production is expected to decline by 13 percent and olive production by around 8.5 percent.

International aid groups including the Norwegian Refugee Council are warning that drought and reduced access to water threaten 12 million in Syria and Iraq, most of whom are dependent on the Euphrates River for drinking water and power production. Power generation in northeast Syria has dropped by 70 percent since last year and drinking water stations on the river are pumping less or have stopped working. Over the past two years, rainfall in Syria has averaged between 50 and 70 percent of normal.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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