Africa: Water surplus will persist in SE Sudan

21 September 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits in many regions across northern Africa particularly Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria. Deficits of lesser intensity are also expected along with some transitional areas (pink/purple).

Surpluses are forecast in large pockets of the Sahel and will be extreme to exceptional around Lake Débo in the Inner Niger Delta of central Mali and between the White Nile and the Atbara Rivers in southeastern Sudan reaching into Eritrea. Surpluses will be extreme in southeastern Niger’s Zinder region.

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A patchwork of water conditions is forecast in West Africa including deficits from southern Senegal through Guinea Bissau and into northern Guinea. In Nigeria, surpluses are expected in the southwest and in the northeast at the intersection of the Benue and Gongola Rivers. Intense deficits are forecast from northeastern Nigeria into Chad, and from Kano in northern Nigeria forming a column to the south and reaching across central Cameroon.

Deficits of varying intensity will extend from Equatorial Guinea through northwestern Angola and are also forecast in southwestern Angola near Lubango where anomalies will be exceptional.

In the heart of the continent, moderate to severe deficits are forecast from eastern Central African Republic into western South Sudan and through the northern half of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, becoming extreme to exceptional in the middle Kibali River region of the northeast. Uganda can also expect deficits. In the Horn of Africa, deficits will be exceptional in southern Eritrea, Djibouti, and western Somaliland. Generally moderate deficits are forecast in Ethiopia from the Highlands through the the Genale (Jubba) River region in the south. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Nugaal Valley in Somalia and severe surpluses a bit farther south.

In East Africa, a small pocket off exceptional deficit is expected in coastal Kenya near Mombasa, and moderate to severe surpluses in many regions of Tanzania. Some small, isolated pockets of surplus are forecast in Mozambique and in eastern Madagascar. In southern Africa, surpluses are forecast in the Kalahari Desert of eastern Namibia and Botswana and surrounding Lake Xau in central Botswana. Western Cape, South Africa, can expect surpluses while moderate to severe deficits are forecast east of Johannesburg and into Swaziland. Central Lesotho will also see deficits.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through November indicates moderate deficits in northern Africa with intense pockets in western Algeria and southern Libya, while conditions in Egypt normalize overall. Deficits will increase across northern Sudan. Surpluses will persist in southeastern Sudan and northern Eritrea, shrink somewhat in the western Sahel, and persist in pockets around the northern Gulf of Guinea as deficits recede. Deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably in central African nations and along the Atlantic Coast, and downgrade in the Horn. Surpluses will persist in Tanzania and pockets of Mozambique, shrink in Madagascar, and re-emerge in southern Malawi, south-central Zambia, and throughout much of Botswana. Deficits in southern Africa will nearly disappear. Surpluses will persist west of Windhoek, Namibia and in Western Cape, South Africa and small pockets will emerge elsewhere in South Africa.

Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202106-202205_3mo_twitter.png

The forecast for December 2021 through February 2022 indicates normal water conditions in much of northern, central, and southern Africa. Deficits are forecast primarily in southeastern Libya, southwestern Egypt, northern Sudan, Guinea, northern Togo and Benin, Cameroon, and southwestern Ethiopia. Anomalies will be intense in Togo and Benin. Surpluses are expected in Zinder (Niger), northern Chad, southeastern Sudan, pockets around the northern Gulf of Guinea, Tanzania, Western Cape and the northern region of Eastern Cape in South Africa.

The forecast for the final quarter – March through May 2022 – indicates deficits in North Africa, moderate overall but more intense in some areas including Egypt and northern Sudan. Surpluses will persist in southwestern Sudan, re-emerge nearby in northern Eritrea and in Nugaal (Somalia), and shrink in Tanzania and Western Cape.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Abundant rainfall in Ethiopia from July through September of last year filled the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) allowing sufficient release to placate downstream neighbors, but future peace depends on more than short-lived water surpluses.

Egypt recently announced a $50 billion long-term plan to address its water issues that will include water rationing, improving water quality, providing additional water sources, and facilitating good water management. Funding could reach $100 billion as the strategy extends to 2050.

Flooding in Sudan has affected 60,000 people in 12 states since July, destroying almost 4,000 homes and damaging over 8,000. In late August, the Nile River reached dangerous levels in River Nile State at Atbara, Shandi, and Khartoum, and remained so into mid-September, abating slightly.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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