Central Asia & Russia: Intense water deficit in Central Siberian Plateau

Central Asia & Russia: Intense water deficit in Central Siberian Plateau

29 January 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2021 indicates widespread deficits in much of the Caspian Basin and well into central Kazakhstan and through Uzbekistan. Deficits will be exceptional in many areas. Widespread deficits are also forecast for the Volga River Watershed in Russia, the tundra region in the Northern European Plain, the central banks of the Gulf of Ob, the region of the Lower Yenisei and Taz Rivers, the Lena River Watershed north of Lake Baikal, and a vast stretch from the Alden River (an eastern tributary of the Lena) to the Sea of Okhotsk (not shown).

Surpluses are forecast in coastal Arctic Russia, the region of the Middle Ob River and its right tributary, the Vakh River, much of the Tom River Watershed, and around Irkutsk west of Lake Baikal.

In Kazakhstan, exceptional surpluses are expected in the north in the Ishim River Watershed including the capital Nur-Sultan (Astana). In addition to widespread deficits in Uzbekistan, deficits will also reach south into Turkmenistan though intense surpluses are expected near Turkmenistan’s Caspian Coast. Intense surpluses are also forecast for central Tajikistan and the southern portion of the Fergana Valley. Eastern Kyrgyzstan can expect surpluses of lesser intensity and some moderate deficits in the west.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2021 indicates a vast expanse of intense water deficit in Russian from the central banks of the Gulf of Ob through much of the vast Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses are forecast in the coastal Arctic and the Ob River Watershed. Exceptional surpluses are expected along the Upper and Middle Yenisei River but deficits will prevail in the river’s lower region. Moderate surpluses will emerge on the Volga River.

In Kazakhstan, surpluses will remain exceptional in the Ishim River region in the north, including in Nur-Sultan. Deficits in the northwest will shrink and some areas of surplus will emerge north of the Caspian Sea while moderate deficits increase further south between the Caspian and Uzbekistan. Many scattered pockets of surplus are forecast throughout the country especially in the eastern half of the Kazakh Upland. Surpluses will increase in Turkmenistan and will include exceptional anomalies. Intense surpluses are also forecast for central Tajikistan though deficits are forecast in the east. Mixed conditions are expected in Kyrgyzstan but surpluses will dominate the east.

From April through June 2021, widespread deficits in Russia from the Gulf of Ob through Siberia will shrink. However, intense deficits will persist across the Gulf of Ob, and in the Lower Yenisei River region, the Middle Lena River Watershed (Alden River), the Lena region north of Lake Baikal, and the Lena Delta (not shown). Surpluses will shrink in the Lower Ob region; a vast expanse of surpluses will consolidate from the eastern Ob Wateshed into the eastern Yenisei Watershed; and exceptional surpluses will retreat from the Middle Yenisei and Angara Rivers. Deficits will emerge between the Ural Mountains and the Ob River and in the Volga River Watershed.

In Kazahkstan, intense deficits will emerge north of the Caspian Sea, leading to moderate deficits in the central west. Exceptional surpluses will persist near Nur-Sultan in the north. Surpluses will shrink in Turkmenistan, and moderate deficits will emerge in pockets of the east. Surpluses will shrink but persist in central Tajikistan and eastern Kyrgyzstan.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2021 – indicates that surpluses will shrink in Russia and deficits will shrink and moderate in the Volga region but increase and intensify in the Yenisei Watershed. Intense deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and eastern Uzbekistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A recent report by the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization cited Central Asia as a region under water stress with high freshwater withdrawals and recurring agricultural drought.

Dutch and German researchers are calling attention to falling water levels in the Caspian Sea which, according to their study, will drop 30 to 60 feet by the end of the century due to evaporation, exposing land area the size of Portugal. The decline will affect the area’s ecosystem reducing the habitats of birds, fish, and seals. Impacts in the Caspian Basin will include changes in the Volga River Delta and the Iranian Coast.

Mid-January winter weather conditions created power outages in Kazakhstan that negatively impacted oil production. Oil output was reduced by as much as 200,000 barrels per day.

The year 2020 brought a number of significant climatic events to Russia. The nation experienced it warmest winter in 140 years of record-keeping, Siberia suffered its worst summer of wildfires, and a toxic algae bloom decimated marine life on a portion of the Kamchatka coastline. Other notable events include a freezing rainstorm that left tens of thousands without power in Vladivostock, a drought in the southern steppes, and permafrost melt in the Arctic.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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