Canada: Water deficits will increase in MB & SK

Canada: Water deficits will increase in MB & SK

29 January 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through September 2021 indicates vast areas of water deficit in the eastern half of the nation. Areas of exceptional deficit include southern Newfoundland, New Brunswick, northeastern Quebec into western Labrador and along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and spanning the northern Quebec/Ontario border. Surpluses are forecast in Labrador south of Lake Melville.

Deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario, intense in Kenora District.  Exceptional deficits are forecast on Hudson Bay in Manitoba and in a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg with surpluses elsewhere in the north reaching west into Saskatchewan. Moderate deficits are forecast in southern Manitoba, but anomalies will be severe around Winnipeg.

Northwestern Saskatchewan can expect conditions of severe to exceptional surplus leading north well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west into Alberta. Surpluses are also expected in a pocket east of Calgary, Alberta. Deficits will reach exceptional intensity in central Alberta in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed and in the province’s northwest corner spanning the border with British Columbia. A pocket of extreme deficit is forecast where the North Saskatchewan River crosses the central Alberta/Saskatchewan border.

Deficits are forecast near British Columbia’s northern border, expanding as they reach well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories. Deficits are also forecast near Prince George, in central Vancouver Island, and in the province’s southeast corner. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the north around Williston Lake and in the south in the Fraser River Watershed where anomalies will be exceptional from Kamloops to Kelowna.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2021 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in southern Newfoundland and eastern New Brunswick, on the Quebec/Labrador border and along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini, and spanning much of the Ontario/Quebec border. Surpluses will persist in a wide band south of Quebec’s Gouin Reservoir reaching the mouth of the St. Lawrence River. Deficits will persist east of Georgian Bay and along the St. Lawrence past Montreal. Surpluses will increase in Ontario northeast of Lake Superior and near Hudson Bay. Widespread, intense deficits will persist in Northern Ontario, particularly Kenora District.

Deficits will intensify across southern Manitoba into Saskatchewan’s southeastern quarter and will persist in a belt across central Manitoba in the northeast on Hudson Bay. Surpluses will persist in the rest of northern Manitoba, moderating as they reach into Saskatchewan. Intense deficits will increase along the North Saskatchewan River through its namesake and between the river’s north and south branches. Intense surpluses will persist in the northwest. Anomalies in Alberta and British Columbia will be much like those observed in the preceding months, though deficits on Vancouver Island will shrink.

From April through June 2021, deficits will retreat from New Brunswick and Newfoundland, but will persist in large blocks in the eastern half of the nation while surpluses shrink. Conditions in the southern portion of the Prairie Provinces will become nearly normal though surpluses will persist around Calgary. Deficits will shrink in Alberta but will continue to be widespread in the Middle Athabasca River region and in the northwest. In British Columbia, deficits will retreat from Vancouver Island and shrink elsewhere. Surpluses will shrink as well but remain widespread in the south.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2021 – indicates widespread deficits in the east though exceptional deficits will shrink. Anomalies elsewhere will persist overall, shrinking in some regions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought conditions in southern Saskatchewan have farmers concerned about negative impacts on crop growth. In Moose Jaw, 2020 was the driest year in over a century, according to Environment Canada. The water table in the region has been low for several years, forcing cattle producers and farmers to haul water.

Nearly 270 damage claims have been filed related to flooding that occurred in New Brunswick in early December 2020. The province’s Disaster Financial Assistance program fielded the applications, which, if approved, would grant up to $160,000 to homeowners and $500,000 to businesses (USD $125,000/$390,000).

In a review of 2020’s natural catastrophes in Canada, a Toronto-based firm reports that insured losses totaled almost $2.5 billion (USD $1.95 billion), surpassing $2 billion in the first half of the year. The Fort McMurray ice jam, the Calgary hailstorm, and several storms in Alberta contributed to the staggering numbers.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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