Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surplus to persist in Vietnam

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surplus to persist in Vietnam

26 January 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2021 indicates surpluses in Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and pockets throughout Indonesia. Anomalies will be particularly widespread and intense in Vietnam with exceptional surpluses in Vietnam’s narrow neck, extreme surpluses in the Central Highlands, and moderate to exceptional surpluses in the Mekong Delta.

In Laos, surpluses are expected to be intense in the south but milder in the north. Surpluses ranging from moderate to extreme are forecast from southeastern Thailand through Cambodia, and anomalies will be exceptional in Peninsular Thailand. Myanmar, too, can expect surpluses, intense in its narrow southern extent; of varying intensity in the center of the nation; and severe west of the Irrawaddy River.

Surpluses are also forecast for much of the Philippines where anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in eastern Luzon and the central Philippines.

Pockets of surplus are expected throughout Indonesia and island nations in the region. Areas of surplus include pockets in Sumatra and Java, northeastern Borneo, northern Sulawesi, the Lesser Sunda and Maluku Islands, and New Guinea. Anomalies will be especially intense on Flores Island. A few isolated pockets of moderate deficit are forecast north of Kuala Lumpur in Peninsular Malaysia and in the region of the Upper Rajang River in Malaysian Borneo.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2021 indicates widespread, intense surpluses in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos and will include exceptional anomalies. Intense surpluses are forecast in Thailand’s eastern and southern regions, while pockets of deficit are expected in the north. Myanmar can expect complicated water conditions including transitions in the center of the country combined with exceptional deficits, particularly in the Irrawaddy Delta; exceptional surpluses in the nation’s far west and narrow southern reaches; and moderate deficits near the Thai border. Surpluses are expected throughout much of the Philippines and will include exceptional anomalies in eastern Luzon. Surpluses will shrink in Indonesia and New Guinea, but many pockets will persist. Deficits will become severe on Papua New Guinea’s northwestern coast and will emerge in central Sulawesi and pockets of Indonesian Borneo.

From April through June 2021, surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Southeast Asia and the Philippines though anomalies will remain widespread in Vietnam and the central and northern Philippines. Surpluses will nearly disappear in Malaysia, Indonesia, and New Guinea. Deficits are forecast for pockets of Malaysia, Sumatra, western Borneo, Sulawesi, and central New Guinea.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2021 – indicates near-normal water conditions in many parts of the region with pockets of surplus in New Guinea and pockets of exceptional deficit in Timor.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Intense rainfall in the central Philippines in early January caused widespread flooding and triggered over 20 landslides. Two fatalities were reported, one in Camarines Sur Province and one in Sorsogon Province, and four people remain missing. Flooding in Negros Occidental Provinces forced over 4,000 families from their homes. A formal disaster declaration was issued, opening up relief funding, and the Philippine Coast Guard aided in rescue operations.

Indonesia has been especially hard-hit by natural disasters in January that claimed 184 lives, injured 2,700 people, and affected 1.9 million. Among the nearly 200 events, the National Disaster Mitigation Agency recorded 134 floods and 31 landslides. Flooding in Jakarta claimed 91 lives.

In South Kalimantan and North Sulawesi Provinces, 20 people died in January flooding and 29 fatalities were reported after a landslide in West Java Province.

The World Bank has approved a $500 million loan to Indonesia to support national response to natural, climate, and health disasters.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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