Middle East: Water deficits will persist in Turkey & Georgia

Middle East: Water deficits will persist in Turkey & Georgia

26 January 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending September 2021 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in Turkey, the Caucasus region, pockets in the Levant, much of the Arabian Peninsula, and central and southern Iran.

Deficits will be exceptional in the United Arab Emirates, from eastern Yemen into western Oman and southeastern Saudi Arabia, Arabian regions along the northern Red Sea, and many pockets in Turkey, including around Lake Van in the east and west of Lake Tuz in Central Anatolia.

Extreme deficits are expected in Qatar and Bahrain. Severe to exceptional anomalies will blanket much of central Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh Province, moderating in the northeastern region of the country. Transitional conditions are forecast spanning the southern Saudi border. Some small pockets of moderate surplus are forecast west of Sanaa in Yemen, but deficits will cover much of the remaining area of the nation and into Oman.

In the Levant, transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast for northern Syria and much of Jordan, but intense deficits are expected in Aleppo. Exceptional surpluses will surround Mosul, Iraq, but deficits are forecast west of the Euphrates River.  

In Iran, surpluses will follow much of the Caspian Coast reaching inland to Tehran, intensifying near Turkmenistan with transitional conditions as well. Surpluses are also forecast in a pocket on the northern Persian Gulf; deficits and transitional conditions are expected in the southern Persian Gulf region and around the Strait of Hormuz; and widespread deficits of varying intensity are expected in central Iran.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for Georgia. Moderate deficits are predicted in pockets of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March 2021 indicates that widespread water anomalies - deficits and surpluses - will shrink in the region. However, severe to exceptional deficits will persist in western Turkey and in Georgia. Surpluses are forecast in small pockets of northeastern Turkey. Exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in central and northern Syria. Mild deficits will emerge in central Iraq and transitional conditions are forecast around Mosul. In Iran, moderate to extreme surpluses will persist in the north around Lake Urmia and along the Caspian Coast with exceptional surpluses and transitional conditions near Turkmenistan. Moderate surpluses will persist at the northern end of the Persian Gulf, but deficits and transitional conditions are forecast in the south reaching from the Strait of Hormuz. Generally mild deficits are forecast to emerge in central Iran.

Surpluses will nearly disappear in Saudi Arabia as pockets of mild to moderate deficit emerge, but exceptional surpluses will emerge along the southern border. Mild to moderate deficits are forecast in Qatar, UAE, and northern Oman.

From April through June 2021, surpluses will continue to shrink, leaving a few persistent pockets, and deficits will increase. Intense surpluses along with transitional conditions are forecast for northern Syria, and exceptional surpluses will re-emerge around Mosul, Iraq. Moderate surpluses and transitional conditions will linger along Iran’s Caspian Coast and in pockets near the northern end of the Red Sea. Deficits will persist in Turkey’s western half, downgrading from exceptional, and the Caucasus region will normalize overall. Moderate to severe deficits will increase in central and southern Saudi Arabia, covering a vast region. Exceptional deficits will emerge spanning the Yemen/Oman border. Deficits will increase in central Iran.

In the final quarter – July through September 2021 – surpluses will nearly disappear, persisting near Mosul. Deficits will emerge in the Levant, intensify in central Saudi Arabia and Iran, and retreat from Yemen and Oman.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
During the first four months of the Iranian water year - September 22, 2020 through January 18, 2021 - precipitation was 44 percent lower than the same period last year as reported by the country’s National Drought Monitoring Center. Nation-wide rainfall during the past four months is 25 below the long-term average.

In mid-January, farmers in Iran’s Isfahan Province marched in protest against water extraction from the Zayandehroud River. Protesters allege that companies supported by the regime are unfairly allowed to divert water, leaving farmers with insufficient supply for crops.

Much of Turkey remains in critically dry condition. Precipitation during the last quarter of 2020 was 48 percent lower than the average from 1981-2010. To help address current and future water shortages throughout the hard-hit capital, the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality intends to build rainwater storage tanks for buildings over 1,000 square meters. Municipal authorities are also encouraging residents to conserve water use, while Ankara’s mayor is contemplating fees for excessive use.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.