Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficit forecast for Mexico

21 December 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending August 2021 indicates deficits of varying severity in northern and central Mexico. Anomalies will be exceptional in many areas of the north including the Baja Peninsula, Chihuahua, and from central Coahuila to the Gulf Coast.

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In central Mexico, deficits will reach from Nayarit on the Pacific through northern Veracruz State. In the south, surpluses are forecast in northern Chiapas, the states of Yucatán and Quintana Roo, and a few small pockets elsewhere. Surpluses will be exceptional in Chiapas.

Surpluses are also forecast throughout much of Central America and will be exceptional in pockets of Guatemala and extreme in many other areas.

In the Caribbean, intense surpluses are forecast in Jamaica, Port-au-Prince, the Bahamas, and east of Havana. Deficits are expected in Sancti Spíritus, Cuba, and Turks and Caicos Islands.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2021 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in the bulk of Mexico, but surpluses are expected in the Yucatán Peninsula and nearby southern states. Though deficits will be mild to moderate in many regions, several large areas will experience more intense anomalies: deficits will be exceptional in central Baja and in coastal Jalisco and Colima on the Pacific; severe to exceptional in Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Durango; and severe to exceptional from Guanajuato through Veracruz State. Surpluses in the southern Gulf states will downgrade but surpluses in the eastern Yucatán Peninsula will become exceptional.

ISciences_Mexico_Central_America_Caribbean_Composite_Adjusted_202009-202108_3mo_twitter.png

Widespread surpluses will persist throughout Central America and will include extreme to exceptional anomalies. Deficits in central Cuba will moderate, and intense surpluses will persist in the north near Havana and pockets of the east. Intense surpluses will also persist in Jamaica, Port-au-Prince, and the Bahamas.

From March through May 2021, exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Baja while downgrading elsewhere on the peninsula. Exceptional deficits will also emerge in mainland Mexico through Sinaloa and Nayarit, joining existing deficits in Jalisco. Deficits will persist in Sonora, and exceptional deficits will emerge in northern Chihuahua while deficits of varying intensity persist elsewhere in the state, downgrading nearby in Coahuila and Durango. Central Mexico and parts of the south are expected to normalize but deficits are forecast in northern Veracruz. Surpluses in the Yucatán and southern Gulf states will moderate, and moderate surpluses will emerge in coastal Michoacán on the Pacific. Surpluses will persist throughout Central America, remaining extreme to exceptional in Honduras and Nicaragua, downgrading elsewhere. Intense surpluses will persist in Jamaica, while transitional conditions are forecast for areas of prior surplus in Cuba and the Bahamas; central Cuba will normalize from prior deficit.

The forecast for the final three months – June through August 2021 – indicates nearly normal conditions for much of Mexico with moderate surplus in Durango and moderate deficits in pockets of the southern Gulf states. Northern Central America can also expect moderate deficits, and surpluses in Central America will shrink and downgrade considerably. Surpluses are forecast throughout Jamaica and in pockets of Cuba and the Bahamas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Living with the triple threat of hurricanes, climate change, and the COVID 19 pandemic has exacerbated food insecurity for many throughout Central America. Hurricanes Eta and Iota that struck in early November destroyed crops in the area and dealt a devastating blow to subsistence farmers in the Dry Corridor whose ability to feed themselves was already a challenge. Guatemalans have been particularly hard-hit: the U.N. estimated that even before the storms 3.7 million people, a fifth of the population, were food-insecure.

November flooding in Jamaica damaged over 200 roads with initial repair estimates totaling $5.4 billion (USD $37.8 million).

As of the end of November, nearly half of Mexico is experiencing some level of drought, as reported by the National Drought Monitor. The states where conditions are most critical are Aguascalientes, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Sinaloa and Sonora. Half of Chihuahua is in severe drought. Mexico’s National Water Commission says that dams in the northern part of the country do not have enough water for the spring-summer agricultural cycle and that subsidies will be required to operate irrigation pumps.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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