Canada: Water deficits will increase in MB & SK

Canada: Water deficits will increase in MB & SK

20 December 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through August 2021 indicates vast areas of water deficit in the eastern half of the nation. Areas of exceptional deficit include Newfoundland, New Brunswick, northeastern Quebec into western Labrador, along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and spanning the northern Quebec/Ontario border.

Surpluses are forecast in a pocket of Quebec south of Lake Saint-Jean and in Ontario skirting the shore of Hudson Bay. Deficits will be widespread and intense in Northern Ontario’s Kenora District.  Exceptional deficits are forecast on Hudson Bay in Manitoba and in a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg with surpluses elsewhere in the north reaching west into Saskatchewan. Severe deficits are expected around Winnipeg.

Northwestern Saskatchewan can expect conditions of severe to exceptional surplus leading north well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west into Alberta. Surpluses are also expected around Calgary, Alberta. Deficits will reach exceptional intensity in central Alberta in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed and in the province’s northwest corner spanning the border with British Columbia. A pocket of extreme deficit is forecast on the central Alberta/Saskatchewan border near the North Saskatchewan River.

Deficits are forecast for north-central British Columbia, expanding as they reach well into the Yukon and intensifying in the Northwest Territories. Deficits are also forecast in British Columbia near Prince George, in central Vancouver Island, and in the province’s southeast corner. Moderate surpluses are forecast in the north around Fort St. John and exceptional surpluses near Williston Lake. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in the Fraser River Watershed in the south and will be exceptional near Kelowna.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2021 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in Newfoundland and eastern New Brunswick, on Quebec’s eastern border into Labrador, along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini, and spanning the northern portion of the Ontario/Quebec border. Deficits will shrink in the Gaspé Peninsula. Surpluses south of Quebec’s Gouin Reservoir will downgrade. Deficits will persist from Lake Ontario east past Montreal. Intense deficits are forecast east of Georgian Bay and in Kenora District, Ontario; moderate surpluses will increase northeast of Lake Superior.

Intense deficits will increase in southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan, while anomalies in the northern regions will persist as in the prior three months. Likewise, water anomalies in Alberta and British Columbia are expected to be much like conditions observed in the previous months.

From March through May 2021, intense deficits will persist in large blocks in the eastern half of the nation while surpluses shrink. Conditions in the southern portion of the Prairie Provinces will become nearly normal though surpluses will persist around Calgary. Surpluses will moderate in northern Manitoba and increase in northeastern Alberta. Deficits will downgrade somewhat in the Middle Athabasca River Watershed and shrink in northwestern Alberta. In British Columbia, deficits will retreat from Vancouver Island and shrink elsewhere. Widespread moderate surpluses are forecast around Williston Lake in the north past Fort St. John, and surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in many regions of southern British Columbia.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2021 – indicates that moderate deficits will emerge in the east and exceptional deficits will shrink. Nearly normal conditions are expected in the southern regions of the Prairie Provinces and surpluses in the north. Deficits will shrink in central Manitoba, and in Alberta and British Columbia. Surpluses will shrink overall in British Columbia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Canadian Drought Monitor reports that at the end of November severe drought conditions persisted from Regina, Saskatchewan to Winnipeg, Manitoba with nearly half of the agricultural land in the Prairie Provinces in some category of drought. Precipitation over the last three months in the region has been less than 60 percent of normal.

A recently released report from Natural Resources Canada concludes that western Canada is warming at three times the global rate. Some impacts are already being felt according to the report including increased risk of wildfire and other costly weather-related climate events. The warming could be a boon for spring wheat though, promoting an increase in yields, while canola output is expected to suffer.

A massive landslide in northwestern British Columbia dumped 7.7 million cubic meters of debris into a glacial lake and reshaped Bute Inlet in November. The entire side of a glacier crumbled off, destroying a First Nation Coho salmon habitat, an important contributor to regional food security.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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