South Asia: Widespread water surpluses to persist in India & Bangladesh

South Asia: Widespread water surpluses to persist in India & Bangladesh

24 January 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2020 indicates water surplus as the dominant anomaly in the region covering much of India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka; several rivers in Pakistan; and a large block of central Afghanistan from Mazar-e Sharif to Kabul to Kandahar.

Areas of exceptional surplus in India include the west coast from south of Mumbai through Goa, veering east well into Karnataka; western Madhya Pradesh; and Jammu and Kashmir in the far north. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast for southern Sri Lanka, coastal Bangladesh, the Gandak River through central Nepal, and surrounding Mazar-e Sharif in northern Afghanistan.

Primarily moderate deficits are expected in Far Northeast India with a pocket of severe deficit in central Assam.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March 2020 indicates that surpluses of varying intensity will continue to dominate the breadth of India while conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are forecast on the west coast as transitions occur. Extreme to exceptional anomalies are expected in central Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, western Maharashtra, south-central Karnataka, central Chhattisgarh, and in the Far Eastern regions of Mizoram, Tripura, and Nagaland. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are also forecast for Bangladesh, and surpluses of varying intensity throughout Nepal and into Bhutan. Surpluses will moderate in Sri Lanka, shrink in Pakistan but persist along rivers, and shrink in Afghanistan but persist in a wide column in the central of the nation from Mazar-e Sharif past Kandahar. Anomalies will be exceptional in Afghanistan around Mazar-e Sharif and in Ghazni and Paktika Provinces.

From April through June 2020, surpluses will shrink and downgrade in the region but will remain widespread. Nearly normal water conditions will return to India’s eastern regions along the Bay of Bengal, but widespread surpluses of varying intensity are forecast for the Far North, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and a long loop from northern Maharashtra through Karnataka sweeping east through Andhra Pradesh. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast for Gujarat in the west, and deficits will emerge in India’s Far Northeast. Surpluses will shrink in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh. In Afghanistan, surpluses will moderate overall but exceptional anomalies will persist around Mazar-e Sharif.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2020 – indicates moderate surpluses in central Afghanistan and in India from Gujarat along a wide path leading to Nepal. Pockets of surplus are also forecast in southern India and Sri Lanka. Deficits will intensify in India’s Far Northeast and will emerge across the southern border of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Heavy snowfall in mid-January triggered a series of avalanches in Pakistan-administered Kashmir that killed 77 people and left 94 injured. This winter has been especially harsh, even for a region accustomed to severe conditions, with road travel, communications, and power supply disrupted. In southern Pakistan’s Balochistan Province 16 deaths were reported due to rain and snow incidents.

Numerous avalanches stuck Afghanistan as well leaving at least 13 dead with estimates of two meters ( ~6.5 feet) of snowfall in some areas over a period of four days.

In 2019, over 850 deaths in India were attributed to heavy rains and flooding according to the nation’s meteorological department. Annual rainfall for the year was 109 per cent of the long-term average.

India’s National Crime Records Bureau reports that water-related crimes - including theft, disputes, and murder - nearly doubled in 2018 over 2017, the first year the agency began collecting water dispute data. The majority of incidents occurred in Maharashtra and Bihar, states that have suffered severe drought in recent years.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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