Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook February 2020

3 February 2020

OVERVIEW
The February 2020 Outlook indicates exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures across a vast stretch from the Dnieper River in eastern Belarus past the Urals in Russia and well into the Western Siberian Plain through much of the Ob River Watershed. Exceptionally wetter than normal conditions are forecast for the Mahanadi River Basin in Chhattisgarh, India, and in southern Hunan, China.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
India can expect greater than normal precipitation covering a block from the center of the country from eastern Madhya Pradesh and eastern Maharashtra to the Bay of Bengal. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Mahanadi River Basin in Chhattisgarth and in a pocket of Odisha around its capital, Bhubaneshwar. Moderate dry anomalies are forecast for northern Jammu and Kashmir leading into north Pakistan as well as much of Sri Lanka, but anomalies will be more intense in India’s Far Northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on… — Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Central Turkmenistan will be moderately drier than the norm as will eastern Uzbekistan and much of Tajikistan, but anomalies are expected to reach extreme to exceptional intensity in Kyrgyzstan. Northeastern Kazakhstan will be moderately wetter than normal.

In East Asia, dry anomalies are forecast in China for western Xinjiang, northern Qinghai, northern Gansu, western Inner Mongolia, and southern Henan into Hubei. Precipitation in the south will be greater than normal from eastern Yunnan in a wide northeastern path through Fujian on the coast. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in Guangxi and Hunan. Relatively normal conditions are expected on the Korean Peninsula and in Japan with some severe dry anomalies in northern Hokkaido.

Northern Vietnam will be somewhat wetter than normal and southern Vietnam somewhat drier. Moderate dry anomalies are forecast for central and Peninsular Thailand, Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, and the Philippines. Dry anomalies will be severe in northeastern Borneo. Eastern Java will be wetter than normal with anomalies reaching into Borneo’s southern tip and pockets of Sulawesi.

In Australia, moderate wet anomalies are forecast in a pocket on the east coast north of Sydney and moderate dry anomalies around Spencer Gulf in South Australia west of Adelaide.

On the African continent, conditions will be moderately drier than normal along the western Mediterranean Coast and in the center of Africa from northern Democratic Republic of the Congo into Central African Republic and the northern tip of Republic of the Congo. Most of Madagascar will be drier than the norm with extreme anomalies in the northwest. Wet anomalies are expected in southern Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and northern Zambia with extreme to exceptional anomalies in northwestern Kenya and Ethiopia. Lesotho will be moderately wetter than normal.

In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, and eastern Oman will be moderately drier than the norm. Moderate wet anomalies are forecast for Yemen’s western tip.

Portugal, Sardinia, and Corsica will be somewhat drier than normal but many regions in Central and Northern Europe will be wetter, with moderate to severe anomalies. Wet conditions will also stretch from the Baltics through Northern European Russia and the Western Siberian Plain. Moderate to severe wet anomalies are also forecast in Russia’s Amur Oblast north of China.

In the West, Alaska, southern Montana, and Wyoming will be moderately wetter than the norm, as will southwestern Alberta, Canada. Northern California and Oregon can expect moderate to severe dry anomalies. In Canada, intense dry anomalies are forecast for western Baffin Island. Moderate dry anomalies are forecast in eastern Northwest Territories and in western Labrador.

Moderately wetter conditions are forecast along Mexico’s central Pacific Coast and in central Chihuahua in the north. Relatively normal precipitation is expected in Central American and the Caribbean with some drier than normal pockets in Nicaragua and western Panama.

In South America, moderate to severe dry anomalies are forecast through the Cordillera Oriental Mountains in Peru, and moderate dry anomalies in Suriname, French Guiana, and along Argentina’s central western border into Chile. Moderate wet anomalies are expected from Columbia’s southwestern coast through western Ecuador, and pockets of Brazil in central Mato Grosso and the easternmost states.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Much warmer than normal temperatures are in the forecast for most of Europe and Russia. Anomalies will be exceptional in a vast stretch from the Dnieper River in eastern Belarus past the Urals in Russia and well into the Western Siberian Plain through much of the Ob River Watershed. Exceptional anomalies are also expected in several large regions in eastern Russia near the Sea of Okhotsk including Sakha Republic, Amur, and Khaborovsk Krai. Spain’s western half will also be exceptionally hotter than normal, with similar conditions reaching into Portugal. In Central Europe, anomalies will be severe. Generally, milder or even normal conditions are expected in central Italy and much of the Balkans.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on t… — Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In the Middle East, Yemen will be warmer than normal with exceptional anomalies in the west. Primarily moderate warm anomalies are forecast for south-central Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Armenia, and northernmost Iran, while anomalies will reach severe intensity in Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan can all expect warmer than normal temperatures with severe to exceptional anomalies in Kazakhstan.

In East Asia, the forecast for China includes exceptionally hotter than normal conditions in Jiangsu and extreme anomalies in the Shandong Peninsula to the north, Shanghai to the south, and through central Henan to the west. Severe anomalies will penetrate west into Gansu and north past Beijing. Northeast China will see severe to extreme warm anomalies. In the west, moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in Xinjiang, and also in Inner Mongolia. Warm anomalies will be severe on the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan and extreme in Japan. Primarily moderate warm anomalies are forecast for Mongolia with severe anomalies in the west. Western Tibet will be cooler than normal.

India can expect warmer than normal temperatures in the south with exceptional anomalies in Kerala and southern Tamil Nadu, as well as throughout Sri Lanka. Conditions will be cooler than the norm from eastern Madhya Pradesh into Chhattisgarh and in the Gangetic Plain, with exceptional anomalies in eastern Uttar Pradesh. Much of Nepal will be cooler than normal as will western Bhutan and southern Bangladesh and nearby regions of India to the east.

Severe to extreme warm anomalies are forecast for Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam’s southern half. Extreme to exceptional warm anomalies are forecast for Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. Central and southern Philippines will also be warmer than normal with severe to extreme anomalies in central and southern regions.

In Australia, temperatures will be significantly warmer along the eastern coast with extreme to exceptional anomalies around Brisbane and Rockhampton. Top End, Northern Territory will be warmer as will Western Australia’s northern half, with anomalies reaching extreme or even exceptional intensity in pockets. Primarily moderate warm anomalies are forecast in the southwest, the center of the country, and central Tasmania. Severe warm anomalies are forecast for New Caledonia.

Africa can expect intense warm anomalies in countries along the Gulf of Guinea, in the Horn of Africa, and in northern Madagascar. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for West Africa and will include exceptional anomalies, particularly in Morocco. Other regions with a forecast of warmer than normal temperatures include Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Zambia, southern Zimbabwe, parts of Mozambique, and South Africa. Deficits will be extreme west of Durban, South Africa. Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast for southwestern Ethiopia, eastern Uganda, and northern Kenya.

Nearly normal temperatures are expected in the U.S. with some moderate warm anomalies in northern Alaska. North-central Mexico will be moderately warmer than normal, but more intense anomalies are forecast for Nayarit and its neighbors on the Pacific Coast, the Yucatan Peninsula, and through the southern states. Similarly, severe to exceptional warm anomalies are expected in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Panama, with anomalies of lesser intensity in Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Caribbean nations can also expect temperatures to be much warmer than normal.

In South America, severe to extreme warm anomalies are forecast in the Andes from Columbia through Peru, and extreme to exceptional warm anomalies in southwestern Bolivia and northern Chile into Argentina. Warm anomalies are forecast in the bulk of Brazil, primarily moderate to severe, but extreme to exceptional conditions are expected in Minas Gerais. Warm anomalies are also forecast for parts of Venezuela and much of Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana. A pocket in northern Argentina will be moderately cooler than the norm as will a pocket in Ceará in northeastern Brazil.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released February 3, 2020 which includes forecasts for February 2020 through October 2020 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued January 25 through January 31, 2020.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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