Middle East: Water deficits in Iraq west of Euphrates

Middle East: Water deficits in Iraq west of Euphrates

24 September 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending May 2021 indicates water deficits from southern Syria through Jordan and much of Iraq west of the Euphrates River, and well into Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Deficits will be exceptional in Saudi Arabia along the northern Red Sea and in the United Arab Emirates. Areas of both deficit and surplus are also forecast (pink/purple) as transitions occur in western Iraq and pockets of Saudi Arabia.

In the southern portion of the Arabian Peninsula, surpluses of varying intensity are expected in pockets of southwestern Saudi Arabia and in southern Saudi Arabia reaching well across the border into Yemen. Mixed conditions and deficits are forecast for Yemen’s southwestern tip. Intense deficits are expected in southeastern Oman.

Transitional conditions are forecast for northern Syria along with some areas of exceptional surplus. Intense surpluses are also forecast for a pocket of northern Iraq around Mosul. Primarily moderate to severe surpluses are expected in northwestern Iran from Lake Urmia curving east through Tehran, becoming intense through the northeast along the Turkmen border. Moderate surpluses will form a path leading south from Tehran. Surpluses are also forecast in pockets of southern Iran including exceptional anomalies in southern Kerman. Deficits are expected on the northern stretch of Iran’s Persian Gulf coast.

Some deficits are forecast in central Turkey and in the southwest, and intense deficits in Georgia north of Tbilisi and along the Black Sea.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through November indicates that widespread surpluses in the region will shrink as transitions occur and deficits emerge. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast from northeastern Iraq through much of northwestern Iran, and transitional conditions near the Iran-Turkmen border. Surpluses are also forecast in southeastern Iran including the Hamoun (Helmand) Wetlands region. Some deficits will emerge in central Iran and on the southern coast near border with Pakistan.

Deficits will emerge from southern Syria through eastern Jordan and Iraq west of the Euphrates and through the northern half of Saudi Arabia. Anomalies will be moderate overall but more intense in some pockets including Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia. Transitional conditions will replace most areas of surplus in southern Saudi Arabia and Yemen and deficits will also emerge. Deficits will retreat from northern Oman but emerge in the south. In Georgia, deficits are expected to increase, and in Turkey, deficits will increase in the west and along the central Black Sea coast.

From December 2020 through February 2021, deficits will shrink considerably leaving normal conditions in many parts of the region but will persist in southern Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, and Tabuk Province on the northern Red Sea. Surpluses will re-emerge in central Syria, in Iraq surrounding Mosul, and along the Iran-Turkmen border. Surpluses will shrink in northwestern Iran and will re-emerge in the south near the Strait of Hormuz. Surpluses will also re-emerge along Saudi Arabia’s southern border reaching into Yemen and Oman. Deficits are expected in Yemen near Sanaa.

In the final quarter – March through May 2021 – surpluses are forecast for northern Syria, around Mosul, in pockets of northeastern Iran and in the south reaching from the Strait of Hormuz into Kerman Province. Deficits are forecast for the Arabian Peninsula, mild overall but intense in pockets of the south.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Persistent, intense rainfall over the past several months in Yemen has led to widespread flooding, with the death count now reaching 148 and 300,000 homeless, many of whom were already internally displaced due to the war that has ravaged the nation for the past six years. The Al-Roone dam in west Yemen’s Sanaa Governate burst, sending 250,000 cubic meters of water into IDP sites (internally displaced people), and the Marib dam remains in danger of breaking after it overflowed in early August. Crowded conditions and a shortage of clean water have increased vulnerability to COVID-19 transmission.

As of mid-September, the amount of water stored in the five dams that serve Iran’s capital of Tehran has dropped by 10 percent compared to September of last year according to the head of hydropower installations at the Tehran Regional Electricity Company. In Tehran Province, hydropower production during the fiscal year that began in March is expected to decrease by 21 percent compared to 2019.

Water shortages in Sistan-Baluchestan, South Khorasan, Kerman, and Hormozga Provinces in Iran have prompted the relief organization IRCS (Iranian Red Crescent Society) to reinstitute a campaign urging the public to donate water to the drought-affected regions.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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