Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits will persist in the Caspian Basin

23 September 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2021 indicates surpluses in northern European Russia that will be exceptional along the Upper Volga River and a vast pocket west of Moscow, and in the Vychedga Lowlands and along the Severnaya Dvina River. Surpluses are also expected in the Ob River Watershed and the Middle and Upper Yenisei River.

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Intense deficits are forecast in the northern Caspian Sea Basin; the central banks of the Gulf of Ob; the eastern Yenisei River Basin; between the Bolshaya Kuonamka and Olenyok Rivers in northern Siberia; the Upper Lena River region north of Lake Baikal; the Lena River Delta (not shown); and along the East Siberian Sea (not shown).

In Kazakhstan, intense surpluses are expected in the north and intense deficits in the west around the Caspian Sea. Moderate deficits are expected in western Uzbekistan, eastern Turkmenistan, and eastern Tajikistan. Surpluses and transitional conditions are forecast for western and southern Turkmenistan. Intense surpluses are expected in the Fergana Valley and central Tajikistan. Eastern Kyrgyzstan can expect surpluses of lesser intensity.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through November indicates that exceptional surpluses west of Moscow will downgrade while those in the Vychedga Lowlands will shrink but remain exceptional. Widespread surpluses will persist in the Ob River Watershed and surpluses along the Middle Yenisei River will intensify, becoming exceptional. Intense deficits will re-emerge in the region of the Lower Yenisei and in the northeastern portion of the river’s basin. Intense deficits will downgrade in the Lena River Delta (not shown) and persist in the Upper Lena River region north of Lake Baikal, shrinking somewhat. Deficits across the central banks of the Gulf of Ob will downgrade but will be severe. Deficits of varying intensity are expected to emerge in the Alden River Watershed, a right tributary of the Lena River in southern Sakha Republic in eastern Siberia. Intense deficits will persist in Southern Russia and moderate deficits will begin to emerge in Trans Volga.

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In Kazakhstan, surpluses in the north will begin to transition as deficits emerge; surpluses are expected in the east and along portions of the Ile and Syr Darya Rivers; and deficits will increase in the west. Intense surpluses are expected on the Amu Darya River in Uzbekistan, the Fergana Valley and central Tajikistan, and pockets along Turkmenistan’s southern border, though transitional conditions are also expected. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in Kyrgyzstan, including along the Naryn River, and in western Turkmenistan.

From December 2020 through February 2021, deficits in Southern Russia and the Caspian Basin will nearly disappear. Deficits will persist across the central shores of the Gulf of Ob, the eastern Yenisei River Basin, north of Lake Baikal, around Tyumen in Russia, and in southern Sakha Republic. Surpluses will persist west of Moscow and in Vychegda, and will increase in the Volga River region. Surpluses will shrink somewhat in the Ob River Watershed and will persist in the Upper Yenisei River Basin and along the middle reaches of the river itself.

Exceptional surpluses will persist on the Amu Darya River and will increase along Turkmenistan’s southern border. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast for eastern Uzbekistan, central and western Tajikistan, many regions of Kyrgyzstan, and pockets of northern and eastern Kazakhstan. Some areas of moderate deficit are expected in eastern Tajikistan.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2021 – indicates that surpluses will shrink in European Russia, increase in the Ob River Watershed, and moderate on the Middle Yenisei. Normal conditions are forecast for much of Central Asia along with pockets of surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Winter crop regions of Russia and Kazakhstan are experiencing low soil moisture that could lead to possible delays in the next planting cycle. Farmers say germination in the early sown crops has already been so poor that they’ll have to reseed when, and if, sufficient rainfall arrives.

Cars were floating down the streets of Moscow after heavy rainfall in late August produced flooding in the Russian capital. The water filled several underground passages and damaged an exhibition hall in the New Tretyakov Gallery.

At the opposite end of the nation in Russia’s Far East, the Amur River overflowed, flooding the city of Khabarovsk. Heavy downpours swelled the river through the end of August and by September, 35 settlements were flooded. Damages are estimated at 60 million rubles (~US $780,000).

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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