ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List September 2020

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST SEPTEMBER 2020

15 September 2020

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in June 2020 and running through May 2021 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List September 15, 2020 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses from the Lower Mississippi River through the Virginias will shrink considerably, as will widespread, intense deficits from Wyoming through the Southwest. Intense deficits are forecast for Florida and western Pennsylvania.

Canada: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will shrink overall but persist in many areas, including around the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Quebec/Ontario border, and the Middle Athabasca River in Alberta. Surpluses will increase west of the Gatineau River in Quebec.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade in Mexico, but severe to extreme deficits will persist in Chihuahua. Deficits are also forecast from Nuevo Leon through Puebla. Surpluses will shrink in the Yucatán and Central America.

South America: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade significantly and shrink. Mild to moderate deficits are forecast for Brazil. Areas of intense deficit include northwestern Venezuela and French Guiana. Exceptional deficits will retreat from the Paraguay River.

Europe: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread from France through northern Germany and from the Baltic region to the Black Sea. Areas of surplus include European Russia, the U.K. and Ireland, eastern Spain, and southern Serbia.

Africa: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade with exceptional deficits retreating. North Africa can expect generally moderate deficits. Intense pockets are forecast from southern Eritrea into Somaliland. Surpluses will persist in the Sahel and East Africa and will be intense in Tanzania.

Middle East: The forecast through November indicates that widespread water surpluses will shrink though surpluses are forecast for northwestern and southeastern Iran. Deficits will emerge from southern Syria into Iraq west of the Euphrates, through northern Saudi Arabia and parts of Yemen and Oman.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will downgrade west of Moscow, persist in the Ob River Watershed, intensify along the Middle Yenisei River, and emerge on the Amu Darya River in Uzbekistan. Deficits will persist in the northern Caspian Basin.

South Asia: The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will shrink slightly in western and central India but emerge in Kerala. Surpluses will moderate in Bangladesh and remain widespread and intense in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Deficits will disappear in Tamil Nadu and emerge in Assam.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread. Areas of surplus include Myanmar, Laos, eastern Cambodia, southern Vietnam, and Indonesia. Deficits will nearly disappear.

East Asia: The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses in China will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread in the Yellow and Yangtze River Watersheds, shrinking south of the Yangtze. Deficits are forecast in southern and southeastern China and Japan but will shrink in Taiwan.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through November indicates that widespread exceptional water deficits will retreat. Surpluses are forecast in Australia between the Macquarie and Lachlan Rivers in the Murray-Darling Basin and from Sydney to Victoria’s border. Deficits in New Caledonia will be severe.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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