Middle East: Water deficits forecast in central Iran

Middle East: Water deficits forecast in central Iran

19 August 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending April 2021 indicates persistent water surpluses in northern Syria, northern Iraq, and western, northeastern, and southeastern Iran.

Anomalies will be exceptional in Syria and surrounding Mosul, Iraq. In Iran, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in much of the western region of the country with more intense anomalies reaching east around the Caspian Coast and along the Turkmen border. Surpluses will also be intense in southern Kerman Province in the south.

Deficits are forecast for central Iran and along the Persian Gulf Coast. In Iraq, deficits of varying intensity are expected west of the Euphrates along with mixed conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur.

On the Arabian Peninsula, Jordan can expect deficits, and a patchwork of deficits and transitional conditions is forecast for much of Saudi Arabia with severe to extreme deficits in northern and central regions and exceptional deficits in the nation’s southeast corner. Deficits will be exceptional as well in the United Arab Emirates and severe in Qatar. Surpluses are expected along the southwestern Saudi border and in much of Yemen, though intense deficits are expected in southwestern Yemen near the Bab al-Mandab Strait. In Oman, deficits are forecast in the east and some surpluses in the central region.

Turkey can expect primarily mild deficits in its western half and a few pockets of surplus in the east. Intense deficits are predicted north of Tbilisi, Georgia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through October indicates that widespread surpluses in the region will shrink as transitions begin. Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern Syria and surrounding Mosul, Iraq. Surpluses of varying intensity will persist in eastern Iraq and well into western Iran. Moderate deficits will emerge west of the Euphrates in Iraq and exceptional deficits in the south and throughout Kuwait. In Iran, deficits of varying intensity are forecast to emerge in the center of the nation and near the southeastern border with Pakistan while transitional conditions are predicted in the northeast and southwest. Moderate surpluses will persist spanning the border of Kerman Province and Sistan and Baluchestan Province in the south.

The forecast for the Arabian Peninsula is complicated. Surpluses will persist in northern Israel and conditions in Jordan will normalize. Deficits will intensify in central Saudi Arabia but much of the nation will be in transition; surpluses will emerge in the northwest. Moderate deficits are forecast for Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Yemen will begin transitioning from surplus with some moderate deficits emerging in the west. In Oman, deficits will shrink and downgrade significantly in the east but emerge in the west. Pockets of deficit will persist in western Turkey, and surpluses in the east will shrink slightly.

From November 2020 through January 2021, deficits will shrink considerably - leaving normal conditions in many parts of the region - but will persist in southern Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, and Medina Province on the Red Sea. Surpluses will persist in central Syria, northern Iraq, and western Iran, and will re-emerge in northeastern Iran. Surpluses are also forecast from southern Saudi Arabia into Yemen.

In the final quarter – February through April 2021 – surpluses are forecast for northern Syria, around Mosul, in northeastern Iran and in the south reaching from the Strait of Hormuz into Kerman Province. Deficits are forecast for Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Floodwaters swept through southern Yemen at the end of July, killing at least 23 people and destroying the campsites of 33,000 already displaced from the ongoing war. Over the past month, 172 have died in the country due to flash flooding triggered by torrential rainfall. A hotel collapsed as muddy waters mired the capital, Sanaa, crushing four people, and many wells in the nation have been rendered unusable after the influx of contaminated floodwaters. Health officials say that water-borne diseases are on the rise. In the central province of Marib, the Marib Dam flooded for the first time in 34 years.

The temperature in Baghdad, Iraq hit 124 degrees Fahrenheit (51 degrees Celsius) on 27 July. Amid the heat wave, electricity power outages have rendered air conditioners and fans useless, prompting protests. Several protesters in Baghdad were killed by security forces and protesters in Karbala blocked a main road. Baghdad’s soaring temperatures caused a police weapons depot to explode.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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