Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits near Caspian to retreat

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits near Caspian to retreat

19 August 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2021 indicates that surplus anomalies will dominate a large region in Russia from the Northern European Plain across the Urals through the Western Siberian Plain. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Vychegda Lowland west of the Urals, along the Severnaya Dvina River, and in the tundra region near the Pechora Sea.

Surpluses are also forecast in parts of the Volga River Basin and will be exceptional in the upper basin and moderate to severe in Trans Volga.

Intense deficits are expected on the central banks of the Gulf of Ob; between the Bolshaya Kuonamka and Olenyok Rivers in northern Siberia; in the Lena River Delta (not shown); and along the East Siberian Sea (not shown).

Intense deficits are forecast in the northern portion of the Caspian Basin in southern Russia, western Kazakhstan, and western Uzbekistan. Intense surpluses are expected in northern Kazakhstan and spanning the Iran-Turkmen border. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in southern Uzbekistan, eastern Kyrgyzstan, and central Tajikistan. Moderate deficits are predicted for eastern Tajikistan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October indicates that surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain through the Western Siberian Plain will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread. Exceptional anomalies will persist in the Vychegda Lowland and on parts of the Severnaya Dvina River. Surpluses are also forecast on the Upper Volga and Oka Rivers. In the Ob and Tom River Basins, surpluses will shrink but remain widespread. Intense deficits are expected to increase on the central shores of the Gulf of Ob and in the region just east of the Lower Yenisei River around Norilsk. Deficits will persist northwest of Lake Baikal and will downgrade somewhat in the Lena Delta and near the East Siberian Sea.

Nearly normal conditions will return to the northern region of the Caspian Basin, transitioning from prior deficit, but moderate deficits will emerge in western Karagandy Region, Kazakhstan. Intense surpluses will persist in northern Kazakhstan but transitional conditions are also expected. Mild to moderate deficits will increase in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan as surpluses retreat. Some surpluses are forecast for eastern Kyrgyzstan and central Tajikistan.

From November 2020 through January 2021, surpluses will diminish in the Northern European Plain though persist with intensity in the Vychegda Lowland. In the Volga River Basin, surpluses will increase along the Lower River, in the middle of the basin, and in Trans Volga, and will remain intense in the upper portion of the basin. In the Ob River Basin, surpluses will shrink somewhat but will increase on the Taz River to the east. And in the Yenisei region, much of the lower basin will remain in deficit but surpluses will emerge along the river between the two Tunguska Rivers. Deficits northwest of Lake Baikal will shrink. In Central Asia, deficits will retreat, intense surpluses will re-emerge along the Iran-Turkmen border, and moderate surpluses will emerge on the Amu Darya River in Uzbekistan. Surpluses are also forecast from southern Uzbekistan into western Tajikistan, and in northern and eastern Kyrgyzstan. In Kazakhstan, surpluses will persist in the north around the capital Nur-Sultan (Astana) and in pockets of the east and southeast, increasing along the Ile River near Lake Balkhash.

The forecast for the final months – February through April 2021 – indicates that surpluses will persist in European Russia, shrink in the Ob River Basin, and downgrade in the Yenisei Basin. Deficits will persist in the Lower Yenisei region and will increase around Tyumen, Russia just north of Kazakhstan. Normal conditions are forecast for much of Central Asia along with pockets of surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Fueled by a long stretch of unusually warm temperatures, wildfires continued burning in Siberia and Far Eastern Russia, doubling in size during the last week of July and encompassing 67,913 hectares of land. Smoke from the fires drifted as far away as Alaska and Seattle. The Russia forestry service most likely will not attempt to extinguish the majority of the fires, those located in “control zones,” areas where the government has assessed little threat to the population and control costs outweigh damage.

After cutting electricity exports to Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, Tajikistan is now restricting supply within the nation itself. Snowfall deficits in the mountains of Tajikistan has led to low water levels in the Nurek Dam, a leading source of hydroelectric power in the region. The Vakhsh and Panj Rivers that feed the damn are flowing at half their normal level, dropping the water level in the Nurek reservoir 17 meters below the same period last year. If low water levels persist, restrictions could last into the fall and winter according to Tajikistan’s national energy company.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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