Europe: Water deficits to persist in many regions

20 August 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2021 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions of Europe. Deficits will be especially intense in Estonia and Latvia and widespread in much of Finland and central Sweden.

Deficit conditions are also expected in southern Lithuania and southern Belarus, reaching south through Ukraine including Kiev into pockets of Moldova, sparing Romania but present in eastern Bulgaria. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in Belarus and severe through Ukraine and in Bulgaria.

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Widespread deficits, primarily moderate, are forecast from France through Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany. However, anomalies will be intense in southern Belgium, southern Bremen in Germany, and surrounding Dresden. In Italy, deficits will be exceptional in the Dolomite Mountains, Venice, Bologna, Rome, Sicily, and Sardinia. Intense deficits are forecast for eastern Slovenia and moderate deficits in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and northern Albania. In Spain, moderate deficits are forecast from Madrid to Cordoba, but more intense pockets are expected in the nation’s northwest and southeast corners in Galicia and Andalucía. Surpluses are forecast for eastern Spain.

Widespread surpluses are expected in European Russia including vast areas of exceptional surplus. Other areas of surplus include Ireland and the U.K., Denmark, Czech Republic, Austria, southwestern Ukraine, Romania, southern Serbia into Kosovo, and pockets of Scandinavia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through October indicates a distribution pattern of anomalies similar to the prior three months of observed data though the intensity of anomalies will downgrade somewhat. Deficits are forecast in central Sweden and much of Finland, from the Baltics through Ukraine, from France through Germany, pockets around the Adriatic Sea, and eastern Bulgaria. Areas of intense deficit include Lapland, Estonia, western Belarus, southern Belgium, near Dresden (Germany), the Dolomite Mountains (Italy), and many sections of the Rhine and Danube Rivers. Deficits will increase in France but will be primarily moderate.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202005-202104_3mo_twitter.png

Surpluses will downgrade in European Russia but remain widespread and intense. Moderate surpluses will increase in Ireland and the U.K.; persist in Czech Republic, southwestern Ukraine, western Romania and from southern Serbia into Kosovo; and emerge in eastern Austria and eastern Hungary. On the Iberian Peninsula, surpluses will remain widespread in Spain but retreat from Portugal. Some moderate surpluses will persist in pockets along Greece’s northern Aegean Sea coast and near Athens.

From November 2020 through January 2021, deficits will shrink considerably and downgrade, leaving many areas of Europe with nearly normal conditions. Intense deficits will persist in Finland’s Lapland, severe deficits in central Sweden, and moderate deficits in central and southwestern France and pockets in Italy and the Balkans. Surpluses will remain widespread in European Russia but the extent of extreme to exceptional surplus will shrink. Surpluses will shrink in eastern Spain, the U.K., and Central and Eastern Europe, but will increase in Scandinavia.

The forecast for the remaining months – February through April 2021 – indicates nearly normal conditions throughout much of Europe, and surpluses from Switzerland through Slovakia, large pockets in Scandinavia, and a vast expanse of European Russia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A heatwave has exacerbated drought conditions in France with 75 percent of the country’s regional departments under water restrictions. August temperatures rose to over 40C (104F) and July was the driest in 60 years. This year’s French wheat harvest is expected to fall below last year by about a quarter.

At an average of 33.5C (92T) over seven days in August, temperatures in Belgium broke records nearly two centuries old. Drought conditions in Belgium have been intense, with one meteorologist characterizing the deficit as the equivalent of six months of normal precipitation, adding that recovery could take until 2022 or longer.

In July, agricultural workers staged a protest in Moldova seeking government aid after drought and hailstorms destroyed crops. The appeal prompted federal support of $18 million, but protesters appeared again in August, blocking highways with farm machinery in an effort to raise commitments.

Flooding in Scotland caused a train to derail, killing three people. The torrential storm flooded homes, closed schools, and disrupted power service and broadband connection. Merchants in Aberdeenshire reported that it’s the fourth time in nine years that the Stonehaven town center has flooded. In Kirkcaldy, cars floated in the Victoria Hospital parking lot. Authorities responded to over 1,000 emergency calls throughout Scotland.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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