Canada: Widespread water deficits in the east

Canada: Widespread water deficits in the east

21 August 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through April 2021 indicates vast areas of water deficit in the eastern half of the nation. Exceptional deficits are forecast in a wide path on Quebec’s eastern border and into western Labrador, a large block west of Lake Mistassini, and a column spanning the Quebec/Ontario border.

Deficits of varying intensity including exceptional deficits are forecast for Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Quebec’s Gaspé Peninsula and Southern Quebec, Southern Ontario, and much of Northern Ontario. Surpluses are predicted in Ontario east of Lake Superior and in the northeast along Hudson Bay.

In Manitoba, exceptional deficits are forecast in the northeast Hudson Bay, a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg reaching into Ontario, and around Winnipeg. Large pockets of severe surplus are forecast in north central and northwestern Manitoba. Deficits will be exceptional in other areas of the country including a belt in southern Saskatchewan reaching through Regina, the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in central Alberta, and Alberta’s northwest corner. Deficits are forecast for northern British Columbia, intensifying as they reach well into the Yukon and Northwest Territories.

Much of northern Saskatchewan can expect conditions of extreme to exceptional surplus leading north well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west past Fort McMurray, Alberta. Surpluses are also expected around Calgary, Alberta. In British Columbia, severe surpluses are expected around Fort St. John and exceptional surpluses in the southeast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October for Canada’s most populated areas indicates nearly normal water conditions for Québec City, Toronto, Regina, Saskatoon, and Vancouver; deficits near Montreal, Ottawa, and Winnipeg; and surpluses in Calgary and Edmonton. Though deficits will shrink slightly overall, deficits are forecast in eastern Canada including vast blocks of exceptional deficit in eastern Quebec (QC), at the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, and west of Lake Mistassini. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for Newfoundland and Labrador, the Maritimes, and Southern QC from Montreal through the Gaspé Peninsula. Intense deficits will persist spanning the Quebec/Ontario border and in much of Northern Ontario (ON), with deficits of varying intensity in Southern ON.

In the Prairie Provinces, exceptional deficits will persist along Hudson Bay in Manitoba (MB) and in a belt across central MB, with surpluses increasing between. Normal conditions will return to southern Saskatchewan (SK) while intense surpluses persist in the north. Surpluses are forecast in Alberta (AB) near Calgary, Edmonton, and Fort McMurray; intense deficits will persist in the Middle Athabasca River Watershed and in northwestern AB. In British Columbia (BC), surpluses in the southeast will downgrade somewhat, as will those around Fort St. John in the north, while surpluses in the Upper Peace River will increase. Deficits on Vancouver Island will diminish.

From November 2020 through January 2021, deficits in the nation will decrease overall, though blocks of intense deficit will persist in QC, southern James Bay in ON, and several aforementioned areas of MB. Moderate surpluses will emerge in ON north of Georgian Bay. Anomalies in SK and AB will downgrade but moderate surpluses will increase along the Peace River well into northern BC.

The forecast for the final three months – February through April 2021 – indicates conditions similar to the November through January forecast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Eureka Weather Station, located in the Canadian territory of Nunavut, recorded its warmest July on record since the station opened on Ellesmere Island in 1947. While the average July temperature based on 1981-2010 data is 6.1C (42.98F), Eureka’s 2020 July average was 10C (50F). During July, the station broke daily records for the maximum high temperature of the month, reaching 18C (64.4F), 18.5C (65.3F), and 19C (66.2F). Three maximum low temperature records were also bested. Record-breaking temps were recorded throughout the territory including the High Arctic community of Grise Fiord.

A revised assessment of damages from April flooding in Fort McMurray, Alberta raises the estimate to $522 million (US $394.8 million) in insured damages, over two and a quarter times the earlier estimate. Updated analysis of commercial property losses accounts for the majority of the difference.

Drought in the Canadian Maritime Provinces has farmers concerned. As of mid-August, conditions in New Brunswick are moderate to severe, and abnormally dry in Nova Scotia, according to the Canadian Drought Monitor. With very little rain, irrigation sources are near depletion and costs are mounting. On one 175-acre farm in Nova Scotia that adds up to an additional $15,000 (US $11,356) a week in labor and water to sustain crops.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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