ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List July 2020

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST JULY 2020

15 July 2020

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in April 2020 and running through March 2021 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List July 15, 2020 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade in the South, Southeast, and Upper Midwest. Deficits will persist in Northern California, shrink and downgrade in the Rockies and Southwest, and increase in the Northeast.

Canada: The forecast through September indicates nearly normal water conditions for Toronto, Regina, and Vancouver; surpluses for Calgary and Edmonton; and deficits in Québec City, Montreal, Ottawa, and Winnipeg. Deficits will disappear from southern Saskatchewan and increase in southern Quebec.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through September indicates water surpluses in Sonora and the Yucatan and deficits from Mexico City through southern Veracruz. Surpluses will shrink in Central America and deficits will nearly disappear in the Caribbean.

South America: The forecast through September indicates significant water deficits in Peru, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil, Suriname, French Guiana, northern Chile, and on the Paraguay River. Moderate deficits will emerge in central Brazil and surpluses will persist in the east.

Europe: The forecast through September indicates a distribution pattern of water anomalies similar to the prior three months. Widespread deficits are expected in Central Europe and around the Baltic and Adriatic Seas. Areas of surplus include the Iberian Peninsula, the eastern Balkans, and Russia.

Africa: The forecast through September indicates water deficits across northern Africa, nearly normal conditions in the Sahel and central African nations, intense surpluses in East Africa, and generally mild deficits in the south.

Middle East: The forecast through September indicates that widespread water surpluses will shrink as transitions occur but will persist in northern Syria, northern Iraq, and northwestern Iran. Deficits will emerge in central Iran, shrink in Oman, and intensify in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses from northern European Russia through the Western Siberian Plain and in the Volga Basin will shrink. Deficits will increase in the Yenisei River Basin and shrink in Kazakhstan.

South Asia: The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will shrink but remain widespread. Surpluses will persist in western and central India, increase in Gujarat, remain intense in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and downgrade in Bangladesh. Deficits in southern India and southern Pakistan will nearly disappear.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade overall but persist in many areas of Indonesia and large pockets in Southeast Asia. Areas of deficit include west-central and northeastern Thailand and Timor Island.

East Asia: The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will retreat from the Pearl River Basin, downgrade in the Yellow River Basin, and moderate in the lower and middle regions of the Yangtze. Deficits will shrink in Mongolia and Xinjiang but intensify in Yunnan and Guangdong. Surpluses will increase in North Korea.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through September indicates exceptional water deficits across northern Australia. Widespread surpluses in the southeast will shrink, persisting in the central Murray-Darling Basin. Intense deficits will shrink in New Zealand.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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