South Asia: Intense water surplus to persist in Pakistan & Afghanistan

20 May 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through January 2021 indicates that moderate to severe water surpluses will dominate much of India from Gujarat through Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and eastern Rajasthan into Uttar Pradesh in the Gangetic Plain and along the Ganges. Surpluses will also reach south through Karnataka and east through Andhra Pradesh to the Indian Ocean. Anomalies will be severe to exceptional in a path from Pune in Maharashtra leading southeast through central Karnataka, and in a pocket of central Rajasthan. Severe deficits are forecast for India’s Far Northeast.

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Surpluses will be intense through the center of Nepal along the Gandaki River, downgrading as it joins the Ganges in India. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected in much of Pakistan’s northern two-thirds. Similar surplus anomalies are expected in much of Afghanistan, encompassing Kandahar, Kabul, Mazar-e Sharif, and tracing the paths of the Helmand and Harirud Rivers. Some moderate deficits are forecast near Karachi, Pakistan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

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Widespread surplus anomalies observed across the breadth of the India in prior months will shrink May through July, leaving nearly normal conditions in many regions. However, surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in the Far North, a pocket in central Rajasthan, and along a path through western Maharashtra into Karnataka, veering northeast into Andhra Pradesh. Moderate anomalies are forecast from eastern Rajasthan through northern Madhya Pradesh into Uttar Pradesh. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) are expected in much of the remainder of Madhya Pradesh along with severe surpluses in the west. Gujarat, too will see transitional conditions. A band of exceptional deficit will emerge in coastal Maharashtra including Mumbai. Deficits will intensify in the Far Northeast and will emerge in Chhattisgarh near Bhilai. Moderate deficits are forecast for Kerala. In Sri Lanka, moderate surpluses will emerge in the north, retreating in the southwest.

Surpluses will remain widespread and intense in Pakistan’s northern two-thirds and in the bulk of eastern Afghanistan with moderate anomalies in the west. Intense deficits will increase somewhat north of Karachi, Pakistan and will emerge in a pocket of the southwest. Surpluses in Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh will shrink considerably and downgrade.

From August through October, moderate surpluses will emerge in much of central India and parts of the south, and deficits will nearly disappear. Surpluses are expected from Gujarat through Madhya Pradesh into the Gangetic Plain, and south through Maharashtra, Karnataka, and into India’s southern tip and western Sri Lanka. Moderate surpluses are also forecast Andhra Pradesh. Surpluses in Far North India will include exceptional anomalies. Relatively normal water conditions are forecast for Bangladesh and much of Nepal, with intense surpluses on the Gandaki River and a few pockets of moderate surplus in Bangladesh.

In Pakistan, conditions will begin to normalize on the lower Indus River and along some of its tributaries to the north but surplus anomalies will remain extreme to exceptional in vast areas to the west and north. Conditions will begin to transition in parts of Afghanistan though extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected around Kandahar and Kabul.

The forecast for the final months – November through January – indicates primarily moderate surpluses increasing in India covering much of the nation’s bulk; moderate deficits emerging in Rajasthan and the Far Northeast; and a pocket of exceptional deficit in Gujarat on the Gulf of Khambhat. Surpluses and transitional conditions are forecast for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and mild to moderate deficits in southern and eastern Pakistan.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall in northern Afghanistan left four dead in early May after a coal mine flooded northwest of Kabul in Baghlan Province. Homes, crops, and infrastructure were damaged in Baghlan and in neighboring Samangan Province where hundreds of livestock were killed. At least 7,000 people were affected, 6,000 displaced in Baghlan and another 1,000 in Samangan. Flooding was also reported in Helmand Province, leaving hundreds homeless, and in Ghor.

Flooding and landslides killed two people in Pakistan’s northern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on the Afghan border.

Cyclone Amphan, the strongest storm ever measured in the Bay of Bengal, is currently making its way toward India and Bangladesh. With wind speeds of up to 270 kilometers per hour (165 miles per hour), Amphan could potentially threaten 33.6 million people in India and 5.3 million in Bangladesh.

Spin-up from Amphan has already claimed lives in Sri Lanka - two people died on 15 May after heavy rains produced flooding and landslides. On 19 May, Ratnapura, a city in the southern part of the nation, reported 193 mm (7.6 inches) of rain in 24 hours.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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