Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook April 2020

3 April 2020

OVERVIEW
The April Outlook indicates significant deviations from the norm in both precipitation and temperature for Russia. Conditions are forecast to be wetter than normal across a vast band of the Arctic region from the Barents Sea through the Laptev Sea and will include exceptional anomalies. Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for most of the nation, and exceptional anomalies will dominate from the Ural Mountains to the Sea of Japan.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
The vast stretch of blue on the precipitation map below calls out wet anomalies of varying intensity forecast for much of Arctic Russia. Anomalies will be exceptional in the northern Yamal Peninsula and across the Gulf of Ob; in the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River region, a right tributary of the Yenisei River; and in a wide path from the Laptev Sea reaching inland. Moderate to severe wet anomalies are expected near the Bering Strait.

Russia regions north of Mongolia will see drier than normal conditions, primarily moderate to severe but with some exceptionally drier areas including around southern Lake Baikal.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on… — Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Dry anomalies will reach into northeastern Mongolia and Northeast China. The Lower and Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River in China are expected to be drier than normal and will include extreme and even exceptional anomalies. Primarily moderate dry anomalies are forecast for western Inner Mongolia and parts of Xinjiang.

China’s southeastern coast will be wetter than normal as will Taiwan. In southern China, wet anomalies will be exceptional at the intersection of Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guizhou. Wet anomalies of lesser intensity are forecast for western Sichuan and Tibet.

South Korea will be somewhat drier than the norm as will pockets of Japan.

In Southeast Asia, moderate dry anomalies are expected in Thailand and southern Myanmar with a few severe pockets. Laos can expect moderate dry anomalies in the south. Northern Vietnam will be somewhat wetter than the norm, and moderate wet anomalies are forecast for northwestern Myanmar.

The southern Philippines will be drier than normal, especially southern Mindanao where anomalies will be extreme. Southern Papua New Guinea will be moderately drier than normal. A few pockets of moderate wet anomalies are forecast for in Indonesia including Borneo and Java.

Australia can expect moderate to severe wet anomalies in New South Wales, moderate wet anomalies in much of Western Australia, and a few scattered, small pockets of moderate dry anomalies in the north.

In South Asia, conditions in India will be moderately wetter in northern Rajasthan extending across the border into Pakistan, and pockets in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, as well as in Mizoram near Myanmar. India’s southernmost tip will be drier than normal as will Sri Lanka.

Western Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will be moderately wetter than normal, but some dry anomalies are forecast for Tajikistan that will be severe in the southwest.

Moderate wet anomalies are expected in Turkey’s eastern half and in pockets of the smaller nations from the eastern Black Sea to the Caspian. Saudi Arabia will be somewhat drier than normal.

Relatively normal precipitation is expected in much of Europe though some moderate dry anomalies are forecast from central France into Germany, and moderate wet anomalies in Greece and much of coastal Norway, seeping across the border into Sweden.

Pockets of West Africa will be somewhat wetter than normal, including Sierra Leone, Guinea, pockets of Nigeria, Cameroon, and southern Chad. South Sudan will see similar conditions, as will east-central Angola. Intense dry anomalies are forecast for south-central Uganda, moderating in Rwanda and Burundi. Drier than normal conditions are also expected from southern Tanzania into northern Mozambique, Malawi, and eastern Zambia, and will be fairly intense in Tanzania and Mozambique.

In South America, moderate to severe wet anomalies are forecast for northeastern Pará State in Brazil; in eastern Bolivia and into a pocket of northeastern Paraguay; the Ecuadorian Andes and leading north into Columbia; and the southern Patagonia Icefields. Dry anomalies are forecast for southwestern Bolivia and will be intense east of La Paz. A few pockets of primarily moderate dry anomalies are expected in coastal Venezuela, northwestern Guyana, southern Roraima (northern Brazil), Columbia’s southwestern coast, southern Peru, and central Chile into Argentina.

In North America, northwestern Alaska will be much wetter than normal, while the southeastern coastal areas will be much drier. Dry anomalies will extend well into Canada’s Yukon Territory and are also forecast in the Northwest Territories. Moderately drier than normal conditions are forecast along southern James Bay. In the U.S., conditions will be moderately wetter in a band from the central Rockies sweeping northeast into the Northern Plains States. Western Texas into New Mexico can expect moderate dry anomalies. Conditions in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean will be relatively normal with some modest dry anomalies in west-central Mexico.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
As the temperature map below clearly shows many areas of the world can expect much warmer than normal temperatures, but a vast expanse of bright red in Russia immediately draws our attention to exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures forecast from the Ural Mountains to the Sea of Japan. Warm anomalies are forecast for nearly every corner of Russia though anomalies in northern European Russia will be less intense, ranging from moderate to severe.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on t… — Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In East Asia, warm anomalies ranging from severe to exceptional are forecast for Mongolia, Northeast China, and northern Xinjiang. In eastern China, warm anomalies will be severe in the Shandong Peninsula and west of the Bohai Sea, moderating in the North China Plain but becoming severe as they reach south into Hubei. Primarily moderate warm anomalies are forecast for eastern Tibet. Temperatures in southeastern and southern China will be relatively normal with a few cooler than normal pockets in coastal Fujian and spanning the border of Yunnan and Guangxi. The Korean Peninsula will be much warmer than normal with severe to extreme anomalies, as will northern Japan.

Much of Southeast Asia, Indonesia, the southern Philippines, and New Guinea will be much warmer than the norm. Areas with a forecast of widespread exceptional anomalies include Thailand, Sumatra, and Java.

Warm anomalies of varying severity are forecast across Australia’s northern half; moderate to severe anomalies along the southeast coast; and moderate anomalies in Tasmania. Areas with exceptional anomalies include the region north of Brisbane, the tip of the Yorke Peninsula in Queensland, and Arnhem Land in Northern Territory. South Island, New Zealand will be moderately warmer than normal.

In South Asia, southern India will be warmer than normal with anomalies reaching exceptional intensity in Kerala and throughout Sri Lanka. Warm anomalies will be intense in Odisha in the east and Jammu and Kashmir in the north, and primarily moderate in Gujarat in the west and parts of the Far Northeast. Western Uttar Pradesh and pockets of Nepal will be moderately cooler than normal. Similar cool anomalies are expected in central Pakistan, but temperatures in the far north of the nation will be much warmer than normal; moderate warm anomalies are expected in the southwest.

In Central Asia, nearly all of Kazakhstan will be warmer than normal and anomalies will be intense in the east. Intense warm anomalies are also forecast for southern Kyrgyzstan and eastern Tajikistan; moderate anomalies are expected in much of Uzbekistan and north-central Turkmenistan.

The Arabian Peninsula will be much warmer than normal and northern Iraq will be somewhat cooler.

In Africa, warm anomalies are forecast across the southern Sahara and the Sahel and will be severe to exceptional in the Sahel. Intense warm anomalies are also forecast in West Africa from Senegal through western Sierra Leon, and some coastal areas of Liberia and Cote D’Ivoire. Warm anomalies of similar intensity are expected in parts of the Horn of Africa including Eritrea, Somaliland, and pockets of Ethiopia. Other regions of the continent that will be warmer than normal: from Cameroon through Republic of the Congo; northern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); Rwanda and Burundi; and Madagascar. Anomalies will be exceptional in Burundi, DRC, northeastern Madagascar, and southern Gabon.

In Europe, moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast for Northern Europe and Denmark. Severe anomalies will be especially widespread in Finland. Moderately warmer that normal temperatures are expected in the Baltics, Belarus, the Netherlands, northern Germany, Scotland, pockets of Ireland, southern France, Switzerland, pockets of Spain and Portugal, Sardinia, Sicily, and pockets of Romania.

Much of the northern half of South America will be warmer than the norm, with exceptional anomalies in northeastern and southern Venezuela and following the Andes in Columbia and Ecuador; Suriname and French Guiana; western Brazil; central and southern Peru; northern and western Bolivia; and the Atacama Desert in Chile. Eastern Brazil can expect moderate warm anomalies as well as some normal temperatures. Normal temperatures are forecast in southern Brazil and much of the southern half of the continent.

Caribbean nations will be much warmer than normal with exceptional anomalies in Jamaica, eastern Dominican Republic, and the western and eastern tips of Cuba. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in Central America with exceptional anomalies in Belize. Southern Mexico and the Yucatan will see severe to extreme warm anomalies, and anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for central and north-central Mexico.

In the U.S., Florida will be moderately warmer than the norm. Cool anomalies are forecast for the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Montana, and north through the Prairie Provinces of Canada. Anomalies will reach extreme intensity in some regions. A vast expanse of central Quebec will be warmer than normal, and moderate warm anomalies are expected in Northern Ontario west of James Bay. Alaska and Canada’s Yukon Territory will be much warmer with exceptional anomalies in much of northern Alaska.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released April 2, 2020 which includes forecasts for April 2020 through December 2020 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued March 25 through March 31, 2020.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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