Central Asia & Russia: Widespread water surplus in N European Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Widespread water surplus in N European Russia

30 March 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November indicates a region of intense deficit in western Kazakhstan, central Uzbekistan and along the Uzbekistan border with Turkmenistan. Anomalies will be exceptional on the Caspian coast of Kazakhstan and diminishing farther inland. Surplus anomalies dominate a large region stretching from the Northern European Plain across the Urals through the Western Siberian Plain. Anomalies may be exceptional in the Vychedga Lowlands west of the Urals and in patches of northernmost Kazakhstan. Elsewhere, a patchwork of surplus and deficit conditions is forecast including areas of extreme to exceptional deficit both northwest and southeast of Lake Baikal.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May indicates widespread intense surpluses persisting in Russia in the Northern European Plain and across the Ural Mountains into the Western Siberian Plain. The extent of exceptional surplus will diminish in westernmost Russia (in the St. Petersburg region) but increase farther east as far as the western sections of the Central Siberian Plateau. Elsewhere on the Central Siberian Plateau deficits will give way to generally normal conditions. The band of deficits dominating much of Kazakhstan is forecast to diminish except for in the Caspian Depression where they may become exceptional.

From June through August, surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain through the Western Siberian Plateau will shrink, downgrade, and transition to conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur. Pockets of surplus anomalies will persist including exceptional anomalies in the Vychegda Lowland. Conditions of surplus are forecast to change to deficit in the Yenisey River valley near the confluence of the Podkamennaya Tunguska. Deficits in the Caspian Depression are likely to diminish.

The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates that anomalies region-wide will diminish. Surpluses will persist in the Vychedga Lowlands and deficits will persist on the eastern edge of the Western Siberian Plain.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
The threat of flooding prompted evacuation of over 450 families from the Almaty Region of Kazakhstan in late February.

A penal colony in Petropavl, North Kazakhstan Region is preparing for flood threat in the event the microdistrict that the corrections institute occupies, located at a higher point that the surrounding village, becomes an island, as has happened in the past.

Spring flooding was reported in Russia’s Irkutsk Region in the village of Granovschina where residential plots and several streets and a highway were affected. Authorities responded by pumping water and digging drainage channels. Irkutsk Region suffered two flood events in the summer of 2019 that left 25 people dead, 700 injured, and thousands displaced.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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