East Asia: Widespread water surplus in the Yellow River Basin

30 March 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through November indicates water surpluses of varying intensity in vast pockets of Northeast China, in the Yellow River Basin (Huang He), and in western Tibet (Xizang). Moderate surpluses are forecast for Shanghai in the east and Guizhou in the south.

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Exceptional deficits are expected in western Inner Mongolia with deficits of varying intensity in Mongolia. Deficits will also be intense in Xinjiang in western China, particularly in the Taklimakan Desert.

Some pockets of moderate to severe deficit are forecast in southern Yunnan, Fujian, and Taiwan, and moderate deficits west of the Bohai Sea.

On the Korean Peninsula, a few pockets of deficit are forecast for northeastern North Korea, and moderate surpluses in southeastern South Korea. Japan can expect moderate deficits in western Hokkaido.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May indicates widespread surpluses in the Yellow River Basin, severe along the lower and middle stretches of the river and reaching exceptional intensity in the vast upper basin.

ISciences_East_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201912-202011_3mo_twitter.png

Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in the Upper Yangtze Basin. Tibet will also see surpluses and anomalies will be exceptional in central Tibet and along the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River. Intense surpluses will persist in Northeast China though the extent will shrink slightly. Moderate surpluses are expected near Shanghai and moderate to severe in Guizhou.

Deficits will nearly disappear in the southeast but exceptional deficits will persist in southern Yunnan. Moderate to extreme deficits will emerge in western Inner Mongolia and in Xinjiang along with conditions of both deficit and surplus as transitions occur.

Surpluses are forecast for northwestern Mongolia, but widespread deficits are expected in much of the remainder of the country and will include exceptional anomalies. South Korea can expect nearly normal water conditions, while in North Korea deficits will decrease and surpluses will increase. Intense deficits are forecast for northern Honshu, Japan, and generally mild deficits in Hokkaido.

From June through August, surpluses will shrink overall, retreating from most of Northeast China and the Yangtze Basin, and moderating in much of the Yellow River Basin. A pocket of moderate surplus is forecast in southern Guizhou, and intense surpluses will persist in Tibet. Deficits will shrink considerably in Mongolia. Deficits will also shrink in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang though some intense pockets are expected. Deficits in southern Yunnan will disappear, but moderate to severe deficits will emerge in eastern Tibet. Nearly normal conditions are forecast for the Korean Peninsula and much of Japan, though deficits will intensify in Hokkaido.

The forecast for the final three months – September through November – indicates nearly normal water conditions in much of the region with surpluses in the Upper Yellow River Watershed and western Tibet, and moderate deficits in Sichuan, Shaanxi, eastern Yunnan, and along the northwest shore of the Bohai Sea.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
China’s flood season began 12 days early this year, on March 25, the second earliest date recorded. The nation’s meteorological administration is also expecting the flood season - May through September - to be worse than average. Guangxi Autonomous Region in South China initiated the season with torrential rainfall that hit the region’s capital and largest city, Nanning, especially hard, waterlogging many vehicles and damaging transportation facilities.

Drought conditions persist in Yunnan Province with drinking water shortages affecting 945,000 people and 227,000 large livestock as of mid-March. The region’s tea crop is suffering as drought has delayed budding. Rainfall in the primary tea-growing area of Pu’er has dropped by 34 percent since 2019.

Mongolian herders in the northwestern province of Khuvsgul have lost over 55,700 livestock due to “dzud” conditions, a severe winter preceded by an unusually dry summer that negatively impacts grazing area. The federal government has begun distributing over 2,000 tons of fodder at reduced prices to six provinces including Khuvsgul.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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