Africa: Water deficits to diminish in the South

17 February 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October indicates intense water deficits across northern Africa including widespread exceptional anomalies. Exceptional deficits are also forecast at the continent’s eastern tip in northern Somalia and into Somaliland, and north of Mogadishu; on the west coast from southern Cameroon through Equatorial Guinea and western Gabon; and a pocket in southwestern Namibia.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_201911-202010_12mo_panel.png

Primarily moderate deficits are expected on Africa’s west coast from Senegal through Liberia, though deficits will be more intense in Guinea Bissau. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast from central Cameroon into eastern Nigeria, and in western Democratic Republic of the Congo.

In southern Africa, deficits will be severe to exceptional in southern Mozambique and on Madagascar’s central west coast at the mouth of the Tsiribihina River; moderate to severe in Zimbabwe and from Lesotho to Swaziland; and primarily moderate in northern and southeastern Angola, southern Zambia, northern Botswana, Swaziland, and some pockets in western South Africa.

Intense surpluses are forecast in East Africa in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and northern Zambia, with anomalies of generally lesser intensity spilling into Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and pockets of northern Mozambique. Surplus anomalies are expected to be exceptional in western Kenya, the Victoria Nile through Uganda, and in Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar in eastern Tanzania. In Madagascar intense surpluses are expected in the northwest. Surpluses are also forecast for southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, southern Sudan and the White Nile and Atbara Rivers, Eritrea and bordering regions of Ethiopia, and westernmost Somaliland.

Other areas of surplus, primarily moderate, include pockets scattered through nations along the northern Gulf of Guinea, southeastern Niger and west-central Chad, westernmost Democratic Republic of the Congo, west-central Angola, and along the central coast of Namibia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through April indicates moderate deficits in many regions across northern Africa, particularly widespread in the west, with some large pockets of exceptional deficit in Algeria, Mauritania, Niger, Libya, and Egypt. Surpluses are expected in southeastern Egypt, pockets around the Nile Delta, and near Benghazi, Libya. Exceptional deficits will retreat from the Horn of Africa.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_201911-202010_3mo_panel.png

Nations along the northern Gulf of Guinea can expect surpluses of varying intensity along with conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur. Surpluses are also forecast for northern Cameroon, southern Chad, western Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) near Kinshasa, and west-central Angola. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast from south-central Cameroon through Equatorial Guinea into Gabon and for northern DRC.

Widespread surpluses will persist in East Africa and, while downgrading from exceptional, will be severe to extreme in many areas. Regions with a forecast of surplus include Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, northern Zambia, and pockets of northern Mozambique, as well as the White Nile through South Sudan, and southern Sudan and southern Ethiopia.

Southern African nations can expect normal conditions or generally mild deficits, though moderate deficits are forecast in South Africa northeast of Lesotho and in Swaziland. Surpluses are forecast in Lesotho, east of Pretoria, and north of the Vaal River in North West Province. In Madagascar, surpluses will nearly disappear, and deficits will emerge on the central west coast.

From May through July, deficits will downgrade in western nations of the north but increase and intensify in eastern nations. Intense deficits will increase from southeastern Libya across northern Sudan and in Egypt, where areas of surplus will begin to transition. Normal water conditions will prevail in nations around the Gulf of Guinea, across the southern Sahara and the Sahel, punctuated by pockets of surplus in northern Burkina Faso into Mali, Nigeria into Niger, south-central Chad, and southern Sudan into South Sudan and western Ethiopia. Surpluses in East Africa will shrink and downgrade somewhat but will remain widespread in Tanzania. A pocket of moderate surplus will persist in west-central Angola. Exceptional deficits will emerge along the northwest coast of Madagascar.

During the final quarter – August through October – deficits will shrink in Egypt, and moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast across the remainder of northern Africa. Surpluses will increase from southern Sudan through Tanzania.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Flooding and landslides affected over 90,000 people and left 26 dead in northern Madagascar after heavy rainfall in January, spinoff from Tropical Storm Diane. Nearly 10,000 homes were inundated and military personnel were deployed to assist in evacuation. Portions of several national highways washed away. Arrachart in the far north reported January rainfall three times the average.

Months of persistent heavy rainfall in East Africa have increased food insecurity in the region. Flooding has destroyed thousands of hectares of cropland and disrupted transport routes, raising the price of food staples such as maize and beans for consumers and suppressing the purchasing power of aid organizations.

Intense and prolonged rainfall provides enhanced breeding grounds for the desert locust whose population has rapidly increased in East African nations according the FAO. In Kenya, the locust outbreak has been declared the worst in 75 years and the worst in 25 for Somalia and Ethiopia. Around 70,000 hectares (172,973 acres) in Kenya are infested. Experts say even a relatively small swarm of the pests- one square kilometer - can consume a day’s worth of food for 35,000 people. One swarm sighted recently in Kenya measured 60 x 40 kilometers (37 x 25 miles). The UN has released USD $10 million to the FAO for rapid deployment of pest control.

Drought has hit South Africa’s Eastern Cape region hard, devastating the livestock industry, home to a third of the country’s cattle, sheep, and goats. Nearly a million cattle are facing death along with two million sheep - a situation that could lead to a shortage of red meat. The regional government is earmarking R74 million (~USD $5 million) for drought relief.

Namibia, too, is facing severe livestock losses from a drought that has left dam levels below 20 percent. The state-owned meat corporation is in negotiations with Botswana to import cattle to meet demand.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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