Australia & New Zealand: Severe deficits will persist from Brisbane to Melbourne

Australia & New Zealand: Severe deficits will persist from Brisbane to Melbourne

18 November 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2020 indicates exceptional water deficits in South Australia and the Lake Eyre drainage basin through the Simpson Desert into Northern Territory and western Queensland.

Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast in Tasmania, Victoria, and the vast eastern portion of the Murray-Darling Basin. Deficits of varying intensity will stretch north into Queensland through Brisbane to Rockhampton, where deficits will be exceptional in the Buckland Tableland to the west. A pocket of intense deficit is forecast in northern Queensland near Cairns.

In Western Australia, exceptional deficits are forecast in the state’s southern tip, including the Blackwood River region near Busselton. A pocket of intense surplus is forecast near the coast of central Western Australia north of Esperance, and some pockets of moderate surplus are forecast near the state’s northwestern coast south of Broome.

Nearly normal conditions are expected in New Zealand with some moderate deficits east of Wellington and some small pockets of moderate surplus in coastal points. Extreme deficits are forecast for New Caledonia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2020 indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably nationwide with exceptional deficits nearly disappearing. Small pockets of exceptional deficit will persist, however, in the Blackwood River region of Western Australia’s (WA) southern tip and in the Derwent River region near Hobart, Tasmania (TAS). Deficits in eastern Australia will downgrade but will be severe to extreme in TAS and on the mainland from west of Melbourne, north through Canberra, moderating near Gold Coast in Queensland (QLD) and past Brisbane. Moderate deficits are forecast for South Australia (SA) and pockets of WA.

In New Zealand, deficits are forecast east of Wellington on North Island, and surpluses along the southern and western coasts of South Island. Deficits in New Caledonia will downgrade from exceptional but will be severe to extreme.

From February through April, conditions will become nearly normal in much of Australia, New Zealand, and New Caledonia. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for eastern Victoria into New South Wales; moderate to severe deficits in TAS; and intense deficits in WA’s southern tip. Surpluses will persist in persist on WA’s south-central coast near Esperance and will emerge in pockets along the state’s northwestern coast south of Broome.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2020 – indicates nearly normal conditions overall with pockets of surplus in WA near its south-central and northwestern coasts.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
With dam levels approaching the critical 40 percent mark, New South Wales, Australia will be implementing Level 2 water restrictions for some regions beginning December 10, including the Greater Sydney metropolitan area, with fines of up to AUS $550 (USD $373) possible for non-compliance. Drought conditions have left reservoirs at their lowest levels in 12 years since the "Millennium Drought,” known as the worst drought in the nation’s history.

Wildfires raged in the state, closing 600 schools under fire threat, destroying 150 homes, and causing three deaths. The area burned in this bush fire season has surpassed that of the prior two years combined.

Eastern Australia has lost up to 90 percent of its waterbird population due to drought, according to a recent study. Aerial counts in the 1980s recorded bird totals approaching a million, while recent surveys put the number at a mere 100,000. With less water in the river systems, waterbirds are increasingly flocking to farm dams.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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