Africa: Water deficits to persist in S. Africa & Lesotho

20 November 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2020 indicates intense water deficits across much of northern Africa and will include widespread exceptional anomalies. Deficits will be intense in southern Africa as well, with exceptional deficits in South Africa, Lesotho, southwestern Namibia, eastern Botswana, southern Zimbabwe, and southern Mozambique. Pockets of intense deficit are also expected from Equatorial Guinea into Cameroon, in Nugaal region of northeastern Somalia, and in southwestern Madagascar.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_201908-202007_12mo_panel.png

Primarily moderate to severe deficits are forecast for the northern Ethiopian Highlands, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and parts of eastern Nigeria. Moderate deficits are expected along the Atbara and Blue Nile Rivers in Sudan.

Surpluses ranging from moderate to extreme are forecast in East Africa including Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda. Surpluses will be widespread in Tanzania, reaching west through Burundi into DRC. Anomalies are expected to be exceptional in Kenya east of Lake Victoria.

Surpluses are also forecast in many pockets across the Sahel, scattered through nations on the northern shore of the Gulf of Guinea, and in southern Chad and western Central African Republic. Anomalies will be widespread in coastal and western Nigeria. Primarily moderate surpluses are forecast on the Blue Nile through South Sudan leading across the northern border to a pocket of intense surplus in Sudan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2020 indicates that deficits in Africa will shrink and downgrade considerably. Some areas of moderate deficit are forecast across northwestern Africa, though coastal Mauritania can expect exceptional anomalies. Parts of Egypt will transition to surplus. In southern Africa, primarily mild deficits are forecast overall but intense deficits are expected in eastern South Africa and Lesotho, and severe deficits in Swaziland and southeastern Zimbabwe. Relatively small pockets of intense deficit are forecast for central Sudan, the northern Ethiopian Highlands, southwestern Cameroon into Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, and along the Uele (Welle) River in northern DRC.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_201908-202007_3mo_panel.png

Surpluses will increase in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, and emerge nearby in Rwanda, northern Zambia, northern Mozambique, and eastern DRC. Anomalies will be extreme in Tanzania. Surpluses will persist in pockets just south of the Sahel from Guinea to southern Sudan and will increase around the Gulf of Guinea, with exceptional anomalies forecast for central Nigeria. Surpluses will also persist in southern Sudan, increasing along the White Nile through Sudan and South Sudan, and will emerge in pockets of central Somalia and central Ethiopia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for Djibouti. Surpluses will persist in southern Chad and western Central African Republic, increase nearby in eastern Cameroon, and increase but moderate at the intersection of Republic of the Congo, DRC, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea.

From February through April 2020, surpluses will moderate and shrink overall, but will persist along the northern shore of the Gulf of Guinea and remain widespread in Tanzania. Moderate deficits are forecast across northern Africa with some pockets of more intense deficit; deficits will downgrade to merely mild in most of southern Africa.

During the final quarter – May through July 2020 – deficits will increase in northern Africa as large pockets of intense deficit emerge; surpluses will shrink overall but remain widespread in Tanzania.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Severe drought conditions throughout the South African Development Community of 16 nations has left over 11 million people facing drought-related food crises, according to United Nations agencies.

Maize sowing in eastern South Africa, normally completed before mid-November, has been delayed by a hot, dry summer. Coming on the heels of a disappointing 2018-2019 growing season, a poor harvest this year could likely result in farm closures. Sales of farm equipment are down, with tractor sales falling 30 percent and combine harvester sales down 59 percent year-on-year.

Stage 2 water restrictions were invoked for Johannesburg, with limitations on use of water for gardening, pools, and outdoor activities.

The water level at Impofu Dam which provides water to the city of Nelson Mandela Bay in Eastern Cape was at 16.74 percent in mid-November, too low to extract water.

Persistent drought over the last several years has reduced North West Province’s livestock headcount by nearly 50 percent, with 470,000 cattle perishing in parched grazing land.

The flow of water over Victoria Falls, Africa’s largest waterfall dropped to a 24-year low on November 1, threatening hydropower production at the Karibe Dam.

In East Africa, flooding in Kenya has claimed 38 lives, displaced 11,700 families and killed more than 10,000 animals.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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