Africa: Water surplus ahead for Niger Delta

16 October 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2020 indicates intense water deficits across much of northern Africa. Deficits will be exceptional and widespread in Mauritania, northern Mali, central and eastern Algeria, eastern Libya, Egypt, and northeastern Sudan. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for northern Ethiopia.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_12mo_panel.png

In Equatorial Guinea and nearby regions of southern Cameroon and Gabon, deficits will be intense. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for northwestern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and moderate deficits in northeastern DRC along the Uele and Kibati Rivers and across the border into South Sudan.

Southern Africa can expect mild to moderate deficits overall with some areas experiencing more intense anomalies. Exceptional deficits are forecast for southeastern Namibia and along a stretch of South Africa’s Atlantic Coast. Pockets of intense deficit are expected in southeastern Angola, Lesotho, Swaziland, and scattered regions of South Africa, with primarily moderate deficits from Johannesburg north. Moderate deficits will cover much of Zimbabwe, along with an extreme pocket in the south. Some moderate deficits are forecast in Mozambique and other nations in the south. Anomalies in western Madagascar will be intense.

Surpluses ranging from moderate to extreme are forecast in East Africa including Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania, and will be widespread in Tanzania. Surpluses are also forecast in pockets across the Sahel and scattered through nations on the northern shore of the Gulf of Guinea, particularly in coastal Nigeria. Some moderate surplus anomalies are expected in northwestern Angola and coastal areas to the north.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates that deficits in Africa will shrink and downgrade considerably, leaving the southern nations in nearly normal water conditions and some scattered, primarily moderate deficits across the north. Exceptional deficits will persist in a pocket of Western Mauritania and will emerge in a pocket of southwestern Angola. Deficits in the Horn will nearly disappear with some moderate to severe anomalies lingering in northern Ethiopia. Moderate deficits are forecast for Lesotho and Swaziland, and moderate to extreme deficits in central Madagascar.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_3mo_panel.png

Surpluses will persist in pockets just south of the Sahel from Guinea to southern Sudan, will increase considerably around the Gulf of Guinea, and will emerge from southern Gabon through northwestern Angola. In East Africa, surpluses will persist but downgrade in Tanzania and will become widespread in Kenya and Uganda. Moderate surpluses will emerge on the White Nile in South Sudan.

From January through March 2020, deficits will remain mild overall. Intense deficits will, however, emerge from eastern Ethiopia into Somalia, and small pockets are forecast for northern Sudan. Severe deficits will persist in northern Ethiopia and into central Eritrea. Surpluses will diminish somewhat south of the Sahel and around the Gulf of Guinea, with conditions of both deficit and surplus forecast in some regions as transitions occur. Surpluses will persist in southern Nigeria and its western neighbors and shrink in northwestern Angola. In East Africa surpluses will persist, increasing in Tanzania.

During the final quarter – April through June 2020 –pockets of intense deficit will emerge across northern Africa; surpluses are expected south of the Sahel and in East Africa.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
[added 29 October 2019]
Through September, significant water deficits have affected the Horn of Africa and Africa’s southern regions. Well accustomed to drought conditions over the decades, Somalis have given this year’s drought a name - “Sima” - meaning “equal,” since the drought is the great equalizer, affecting all. According to the U.N., the Horn suffered the lowest cumulative rainfall in 35 years, putting millions at risk of food insecurity.

In southern Africa, the summer drought is being called the worst in 90 years in Namibia, killing thousands of livestock and forcing schools to operate without drinking water or effective sanitation. In Botswana’s Chobe National Park, over 100 elephants have perished over the last two months. Water levels at Zambia’s reservoirs were averaging 22 percent compared to last year’s 83 percent, severely limiting hydroelectric power production and forcing power rationing until December. Zambia will move ahead with planned power importation to help address the shorfall. In South Africa, the Vaal Dam that supplies water to Johannesburg and Pretoria has fallen below 50 percent capacity. Agricultural experts predict that the country could lose as much at R30 million (USD $2.06 million) in lost wages due to reduced fruit yields.

In other parts of the continent, heavy rains have resulted in flooding, leaving thousands of people homeless. Military personnel assisted evacuations in Chad and Cameroon where at least 100,000 were left without homes. Around 200,000 people have been affected by flooding in South Sudan’s Maban County. In Nigeria, 228 prisoners escaped when flooding compromised a correctional facility in Kogi. Twelve fatalities have been reported as of early October due to flooding in Nigeria’s central and southeastern states.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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