Middle East: Moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast through Aug 2016, particularly March through May

The 12-month composite map (below) shows the predominance of moderate to exceptional water deficits that are forecast across much of the Middle East through August 2016. 

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. Widespread exceptional deficits on the Arabian Peninsula are forecast to diminish in severity December through February. During this period deficits in Turkey are forecast to spread to most of the country, though surpluses are forecast to persist in the east. Surpluses are also expected to persist in Iran along the Caspian Sea and in the western province of Kermanshah. From March through May deficits are forecast to increase in severity with exceptional deficits forecast for eastern Yemen/western Oman, United Arab Emirates, and central Iran. From June through August the forecast indicates water deficits throughout the entire Middle East. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.