In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.
Pockets of exceptional deficit will occur in southern regions of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman, as well as in isolated areas of Iran and Turkey. Small regions of southwestern Saudi Arabia and western Yemen will experience severe to extreme surplus.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in several portions of central and eastern Iran.
The forecast anticipates widespread deficits of varying intensity to occur across most of the region. Areas of surplus are expected to persist in Turkey.
The forecast indicates that deficits will downgrade in intensity across most of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria, but will remain present throughout most of the region.