Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continue in Queensland

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continue in Queensland

27 January 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in September 2025 indicates that surpluses will remain in northern areas of Queensland, as well as some isolated areas of Northern Territory and Western Australia. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Queensland, in the Far North region near the city of Etheridge and throughout the Charters Towers region. 

  • Southwestern Northern Territory, throughout the region of Lake Mackay.

  • Central Western Australia, in the Goldfields region. 

Moderate deficits are expected in: 

  • South Australia, near the city of Adelaide. 

  • Southern coastal regions of Victoria. 

  • Western Queensland, in the Shire of Boulia.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through March 2025 indicates that surpluses will continue in northern Queensland, as well as eastern coastal regions of the state. Severe to extreme deficits will emerge in southern coastal regions of Victoria and in southern New Zealand. Much of Australia will observe either near-normal conditions or abnormal deficits. 

From April through June 2025, moderate to severe surpluses will continue in areas of northern Queensland and northeastern New Zealand. Much of the remaining areas of Australia will observe near-normal conditions and abnormal deficits.  

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2025 – expects moderate to severe surpluses to remain in areas of northern Queensland. Moderate to severe surpluses will also emerge in eastern coastal regions of Victoria and New South Wales. Moderate deficits may persist in Tasmania and southern New Zealand. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead time.

IMPACTS

South Australia continues to experience severe drought and some of the region’s driest conditions on record. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) confirmed record-low rainfall in 2024 across South Australia, specifically in agricultural regions such as Yorke Peninsula and the Southern Flinders. Farmers are also faced with significant challenges stemming from previous frost and cold weather, which has severely limited pasture growth and livestock feed availability. To provide assistance to farmers, the South Australian Dairyfarmers’ Association secured $18 million in drought relief from the state government, including grants for on-farm infrastructure, mental health support, and funding for transporting donated fodder. 

Eastern Australia experienced severe thunderstorms throughout the week of January 13th, which brought heavy rain, winds over 100 miles per hour, flash flooding, and hailstones up to 10 cm in diameter. One death was reported, as well as widespread damage, including power outages affecting 200,000 homes and disrupted transport. Experts stated that the storms were triggered by atmospheric instability from a cold front and low pressure, which formed squall lines and supercells, worsening the conditions for hail formation. 

In New South Wales, these storms caused widespread power outages, affecting over 95,000 customers, with 89,000 still affected as of the morning of January 16th. Emergency crews responded to over 2,250 calls, with concerns for more storms and potential river flooding in northern portions of New South Wales. Rainfall reached 127 millimeters in some areas.

The town of Marble Bar in Western Australia recently observed over 100 millimeters of rain within two hours, causing major flooding which cut off major roads for seven hours. Residents described severe lightning storms and rising water levels which made major areas impassable. As of January 14th, flood warnings remain in place for Marble Bar after more than 100 millimetres of rain isolated the town.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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