Africa: Surpluses in sahel to continue

27 January 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in September 2025 indicates that surpluses will remain along the Sahel. Exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern, central, and eastern portions of Africa.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Southern Mali, throughout much of the region, continuing into the majority of Burkina Faso, southern Niger, and northern Nigeria.
Chad, appearing throughout central to southern regions of the country, as well as in northwestern areas. These anomalies continue north into central Libya.
Southern Sudan, with the most intense anomalies appearing in southwestern areas of the country, in West and South Darfur.
Central and northern Ethiopia, with the most intense anomalies appearing within the Tigray and the former Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region. These surpluses continue north into most of western Eritrea.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Western Sahara and Morocco, along the western coasts of both countries. These deficits continue throughout Algeria, and into northern Mali, northern to eastern Mauritania, and western Libya.
Along the southern coasts of Liberia, Ivory Coast, Togo, and Nigeria, into southern Cameroon.
Somalia, widespread throughout central and northeastern regions of the country.
Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, in the Sud-Ubangi province. Isolated areas of west-central Zambia and eastern Angola will also observe extreme to exceptional deficits.
Madagascar, along the western coast of the country, as well as further inland in the Amparafaravola and Ihorombe regions.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2025 expects severe to exceptional surpluses to continue along the Sahel. In Chad, these surpluses are expected to continue further north into central Libya. Severe to exceptional deficits in central Africa will decrease in size, but are expected to remain in regions of northern Democratic Republic of Congo, west-central Angola, northeastern Republic of the Congo, southern Cameroon, southern Nigeria, and southern Togo. These deficits are also expected to linger in coastal regions along the Gulf of Guinea. Further north, northern coastal regions of Algeria and Western Sahara will endure exceptional deficits. Eastern coastal regions of Madagascar and expect extreme to exceptional deficits.

From April through June 2025, severe to exceptional surpluses will remain along the Sahel. Moderate to severe surpluses will emerge in South Sudan and western Ethiopia. Further south, moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in eastern Namibia and northern Botswana. Severe deficits are expected to arise in northern Niger, southeastern Libya, and isolated regions of southern to central Algeria. Moderate deficits may emerge in Gabon.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2025 – surpluses are expected to continue along the Sahel, as well as in South Sudan and Ethiopia. Exceptional deficits may arise in coastal regions bordering the Gulf of Guinea, and in regions near northern Mali, central Algeria, and central Libya. Moderate deficits may persist in Gabon. Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Regions of the Sahel are struggling to rebuild after floods recently devastated the region. In Niger, the floods killed over 300 people, displaced 1.1 million, and destroyed local agricultural areas – worsening the country’s pre-existing issues of drought-induced food scarcity and malnutrition. The floods further depleted a food supply that was already low for over five years, all in the midst of the country suffering from sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The agricultural and livestock losses were particularly severe in the cities of Maradi and Agadez. 27 other African countries, including Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mali, experienced unusually heavy rainfall in 2024, resulting in 2,500 fatalities, 4 million displaced residents, millions of hectares used for agricultural lands destroyed.

The government of Botswana recently updated its climate resilience plan to prioritize adaptation over reducing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. This approach has been praised by African climate negotiators as a model for low-emitting, vulnerable nations. The plan allocates $2.1 billion for adaptation and $0.9 billion for emissions cuts by 2030. Key strategies include the prioritization of using drought-tolerant crops and livestock, improving water access through pipelines and desalination, and equipping public buildings with water storage tanks.

700 tons of food were recently supplied to families in Somalia to help combat drought-induced food scarcity. The aid, received from the United Arab Emirates, will be distributed across multiple drought-hit regions, including Kismayo, Garowe, Mogadishu, and Jowhar. Somalia has faced recurring droughts, causing widespread agricultural devastation and livestock deaths, affecting approximately 3.9 million people in 2023.

A recent study published in Communications Earth & Environment highlights that African easterly waves are expected to increase in intensity and frequency in the midst of global warming. The African easterly waves significantly influence the Sahel's regional climate, and are responsible for transporting Saharan dust, seeding Atlantic hurricanes, and creating conditions that cause extreme rainfall, which will be enhanced by factors such as increased temperature gradients and stronger monsoon flows.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags