East Asia: Deficits persist throughout NW China, Yangtze River Basin

23 January 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in September 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain throughout northwestern China and in the Yangtze River Basin. Central and northeastern China will observe moderate to severe surpluses.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Northwestern China, throughout southeastern Xinjiang, western Gansu, and western Inner Mongolia.
Western China, in western areas of Tibet’s Ngari Prefecture.
Central and southeastern China, appearing in several regions of the Yangtze River Basin, in the provinces of Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, Guizhou, and Sichuan.
Southwestern Mongolia, appearing in areas near the Great Gobi Reserve.

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in:

Northeastern China, spanning through much of southern and eastern Inner Mongolia.
Eastern China, in the Shandong Peninsula.
Central China, in eastern areas of Qinghai.
Northwestern China, in northwestern areas of Xinjiang.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional deficits will continue in much of the Yangtze River Basin, as well as in pockets of western and eastern Tibet. Severe to extreme deficits will span across most southern and eastern coastal areas of Japan. Exceptional surpluses are anticipated in northern Tibet and southern Xinjiang, as well as central Gansu, eastern Qinghai, and northeastern Sichuan. Severe to extreme surpluses will spread throughout much of the northeast, in central and eastern Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, and eastern Heilongjiang. Transitional conditions are expected to emerge in southwestern Tibet and in southwestern Qinghai.

From April through June 2025, most deficits in the Yangtze River Basin are expected to resolve. Severe deficits may linger in areas north of the city of Chongqing. Pockets of severe to extreme deficits may continue in central to southeastern Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia. Severe to extreme surpluses will occur in eastern and northern portions of Tibet, continuing northeast into central Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, and the Shandong Peninsula. Further south, moderate surpluses are anticipated in much of southern and central Yunnan.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits may occur in western and eastern Tibet, western Inner Mongolia, and isolated regions of western Gansu and southern Xinjiang. Moderate surpluses will remain throughout the Shandong Peninsula and in portions of eastern Inner Mongolia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Ecuador continues to face an energy crisis as severe drought continues to affect its ability to generate hydroelectric power. Ecuador’s power grid is highly dependent on hydroelectricity, and as less hydroelectric power is available, daily blackouts which last up to 14 hours affect the region. The blackouts cause significant economic and social disruptions, with each blackout estimated to cost at least $12 million per hour. Experts emphasize the country’s over-reliance on hydropower amid climate change and have urged diversification of power supplies, such as wind and solar energy.

La Niña has officially manifested in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to persist throughout early 2025. As La Niña emerges, current drought conditions in agricultural lands of South America are expected to worsen, according to officials at the US Climate Prediction Center. Ocean surface temperatures dropped to 0.9F of a degree (0.5C) below normal across the parts of the Pacific tracked by the US, said Michelle L’Heureux, a forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña has finally emerged,” L’Heureux said. “It took its time, but we are there.”

In 2024, South America experienced its highest number of wildfires in 14 years, with 54% of the 511,575 fires occurring in Brazil. Among the most affected areas were the Amazon, the Pantanal wetlands, and the state of São Paulo. The fires were fueled by extreme drought linked to El Niño, which created dry, flammable conditions. Though deforestation in the region was reduced by 30%, fires continued as deforesters used fire to clear land, which is more difficult to detect in comparison to the use of machinery.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags