Canada: Deficits persist in Prairie Provinces, C and E Canada

18 December 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in August 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain in several areas of the Prairie Provinces, as well as in regions of central and eastern Canada. Severe to exceptional surpluses will continue in various regions of Nunavut.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Northeastern British Columbia, within the Northern Rockies region. These deficits continue east into northwestern areas of Alberta and north into central to southern Northern Territories south of Great Bear Lake.
Saskatchewan, in the Canadian Shield region of the province. These deficits continue into Manitoba in places northeast of Lake Winnipeg.
Northern and southern coastal regions of Ontario, as well as regions near Sandy Lake.
Quebec, in north-central areas of the Nord-du-Québec region. These deficits continue east into much of Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as Quebec’s Côte-Nord region.
Nunavut, in western areas of the Kitikmeot region.

Exceptional surpluses will occur in:

Nunavut, in northern coastal regions of Baffin Island and near Wager Bay.

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in:

Western British Columbia, in coastal areas of the North Coast region.
Southwestern Saskatchewan, near the Rural Municipality of Kindersley.
Central Yukon, near Dawson City.
Nunavut, in southern areas of the Qikiqtaaluk region.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional deficits will persist in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, and southern to central Northwest Territories. Exceptional deficits will continue east into north-central Saskatchewan and Manitoba, as well as in northern and southern coastal regions of Ontario. Some pockets of moderate to severe deficits will remain in northeastern and eastern Quebec. Extreme to exceptional surpluses will endure in coastal regions of Nunavut’s Kivalliq region, Baffin Island, and eastern Newfoundland. Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated to emerge in south-central Quebec and from northeastern to southwestern Ontario. Central Yukon will continue to observe surpluses of moderate to severe intensity.

From March through May 2025, exceptional deficits will continue in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, as well as western Nunavut and central Northwest Territories. These deficits will continue east into north-central Saskatchewan, north-central Manitoba, and northern coastal regions of Ontario. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected in coastal regions of Nunavut’s Kivalliq region and in northern coastal areas of Baffin Island.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits in the Prairie Provinces may persist, but diminish in severity, becoming mostly moderate to severe deficits. Some pockets of exceptional deficits may continue in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, central Northwest Territories, and western Nunavut. Moderate deficits may emerge throughout much of Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Canada, prices of common foods such as pork shoulder, onions, olive oil, margarine, and broccoli have increased by over 70% since October 2018. These increases are due to several factors, primarily drought affecting key agricultural areas, as well as a weaker Canadian dollar. In Saskatchewan, the average price of over 100 tracked food items rose by 32% since 2018. Shoppers continue to reduce purchases of costly items like pork and produce, but have found it more difficult to cut back on more essential products. Food prices in Canada are expected to rise by up to 5% in 2025.

A recent study conducted by researchers from the University of New Brunswick recently linked widespread balsam fir deaths to climate change-induced drought and high temperatures. Canadian balsam firs, a popular choice for Christmas trees, account for 20% of New Brunswick’s forests and over 95% of its Christmas tree exports. A die-off of similar scale occurred in 1986, which reinforces the study’s findings between extreme weather events and balsam fir mortality. Without intervention, balsam firs may increase in rarity, with significant declines expected by the late 21st century.

Natural disasters in Canada are increasing in frequency and cost, threatening the country’s long-term economy. A recent Scotiabank report found a 38% rise in natural disasters between 2000 and 2020 compared to the previous two decades, and an increase in disaster-related rebuilding costs by over 400% in comparison to the period between the 2000s to 2010s. Experts predict that losses from natural disasters may reach $15.4 billion annually by 2030.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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