United States: Deficits to occur in SW, N, NE states

22 November 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in July 2025 indicates that widespread deficits of varying intensity will occur in the southwest, northern, and northeastern states. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain in Florida, as well as in most noncontiguous states.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

New Mexico, throughout much of Otero, Doña Ana, and Socorro counties, as well as throughout the Pueblo of Acoma.
Arizona, in pockets across La Paz and Maricopa County, and near the Tohono O’Odham Nation Reservation.
California, primarily across the Sierra Nevada region.
Northern Minnesota, in areas surrounding the Leech Lake Reservation, as well as in eastern regions of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula region.
Southeastern Ohio and West Virginia. Further north, eastern coastal regions of Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New York will observe similar deficits.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Florida, throughout most central and southern regions of the state.
Alaska, widespread throughout the state, with the most intense anomalies appearing in the Seward Peninsula, Lower Yukon, the Northwest, and Kuskokwim River regions.
Eastern Puerto Rico, covering most regions south of San Juan.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will appear in several northeastern coastal areas, specifically in eastern Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, and eastern Virginia. Regions of southern Vermont will also observe exceptional deficits. These deficits are also expected to intensify in southeastern Ohio and across West Virginia. Further north, the Upper Peninsula region of Michigan, northern Minnesota, and much of western North Dakota, north-central South Dakota, and eastern Montana. Extreme to exceptional deficits will occur in western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated throughout Mississippi and Alabama, as well as western Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Surpluses of severe to extreme intensity are expected to continue throughout Florida, Alaska, and eastern Puerto Rico.

From February through April 2025, widespread deficits in the continental U.S. are expected to mostly diminish. Some southern and midwestern states will observe continuing isolated deficits, specifically in western Wyoming, northern Minnesota, eastern Arizona, and northern Colorado. Severe to extreme surpluses will linger in central to southern Florida, northern and central Alaska, and eastern Puerto Rico.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2025 – the majority of the continental U.S. can anticipate near-normal conditions, with some abnormal deficits emerging in western and southeastern states. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to continue in northern Minnesota. Surpluses of severe to extreme intensity are expected to continue in Alaska.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
New York City recently declared a drought warning for the first time in 22 years. As unusually dry weather has affected much of the U.S. for most of fall, the northeast has seen particularly noticeable drought-related problems, such as reduced reservoir levels and exacerbation of wildfires in New York and New Jersey. The warning extends beyond the city and includes 10 counties encompassing much of the Hudson Valley.

In the Rolling Plains region of Texas, cotton farmers face another year of drought-related issues, including low crop yields. “Harvest is not turning out very good,” said Kevin Corzine, a local cotton farmer. “Out of the 3,000 acres planted, it looks like I’ll probably harvest somewhere around 600 acres of it.” From July to September, farmers in the area faced high temperatures and persistent drought. “There was no rain, and the temperature was about 110 to 113 degrees for a long time,” he continued. “That was not good for our cotton.”

Drought continues to cause issues throughout much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. States experiencing an intensification of drought include Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. Additionally, water levels in reservoirs continue to drop in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, while bans on fires have been implemented in Maine to lessen wildfire risks. Further west, Montana and Wyoming continue to face widespread drought, as authorities in Montana’s declared Custer and neighboring counties “disaster areas.”

On November 18th, the Department of Interior announced that $125 million will be invested in producing new recycled sources of water in California and Utah to combat persisting drought. The funding comes from President Joe Biden’s Investing in America program, and will help fund five projects to provide communities with recycled, usable water. "The president's Investing in America agenda is making transformational investments in climate resilience in communities across America," said Interior Secretary Deb Harland. "Through the Large-Scale Water Recycling program, the department is ensuring that communities in the West have the resources they need to safeguard water supplies and ensure this precious resource is available for generations to come."

In an effort to increase California’s water-storage capacity, the federal government and California water agencies are planning a $1 billion project to expand the San Luis Reservoir. The plan to enlarge the reservoir will enable it to hold more water, which will increase the reserves of water suppliers in the region. “It’s going to add to resilience,” said Cannon Michael, board chair of the San Luis and Delta-Mendota Water Authority, “the ability to capture more water in the years it is available, particularly given California’s dynamic hydrology, is a critical component of a more secure future.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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