Africa: Surpluses continue along the sahel

20 November 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in July 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Guinea-Bissau, throughout the country, and along coastal regions of Guinea and Sierra Leone.
The majority of the Sahel, occurring throughout southern Mali, Burkina Faso, along the border of southern Niger and northern Nigeria, throughout southern Chad, and southwestern Sudan.
Northwestern Chad, throughout the rivers in the Tibesti region.
Ethiopia, in the Tigray region and near Abaya Lake.
Southernmost regions of South Africa, near Cape Town.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Coastal regions of Western Sahara and Morocco.
Northern Mali, in the Salam region, continuing into southwestern Algeria and eastern Mauritania. Further east, much of Libya will observe exceptional deficits, specifically in the Fezzan and Cyrenaica regions.
The Horn of Africa, in much of northern Somalia and Djibouti, as well as eastern portions of the Somali region in Ethiopia.
Coastal regions of the Gulf of Guinea, in southern Togo, Benin, and southwestern Nigeria.
Southeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, throughout much of the region, as well as in the Huíla Province in Angola, and in northern and southern Madagascar.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits in northern and central Africa will mostly resolve, becoming near-normal conditions and abnormal deficits in most areas. Severe to exceptional surplus is expected to continue along the Sahel, occurring in Guinea-Bissau, southern Mali, Burkina Faso, southern Niger, northern Nigeria, and throughout much of southern Chad. The enneris in the Tibesti region of northwestern Chad can anticipate extreme surpluses to persist. Pockets of severe to extreme deficits will occur in southern Nigeria, Togo, Benin, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, and west-central Angola. Exceptional deficit is expected in eastern coastal regions of Madagascar and northern Somalia.

From February through April 2025, deficits in central Africa are expected to mostly dissipate, only remaining in southern regions of Nigeria. Severe to exceptional surplus is expected to continue along the Sahel and in northwestern Chad. Exceptional deficits in coastal regions of Madagascar are expected to resolve, becoming near-normal conditions.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2025 – indicates that near-normal conditions will continue in most central and southern regions of Africa, while northern Africa experiences widespread abnormal to moderate deficits. Surpluses of moderate to extreme intensity will remain along the Sahel and in northwestern Ethiopia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Niger, residents continue to rebuild after the flooding in the Sahel from June to October destroyed communities, agriculture, and infrastructure. As of late September, at least 339 people were killed and 1.1 million displaced as nearly 190,000 hectares of agricultural land were flooded. The Maradi region, the agricultural hub of southern Niger, saw “the equivalent of an entire month’s worth of rain falling in a day,” said Aboubakar Alassane, a member of the coordination council of West Africa People’s Organization. The devastation left by the floods was described as “unprecedented,” which occurred in the midst of the country’s economic crisis due to sanctions.

On September 18th, the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) warned of potential flooding in 11 of its states following the release of one of Cameroon’s largest dams, the Lagdo dam. The warning comes as the country’s northeastern state, Borno, experiences major flooding due to heavy rains throughout much of the Sahel. Cameroon has several dams on the Benue River, which flows downstream into Nigeria. Representatives from NIHSA said the Lagdo dam managers would gradually release water to prevent flooding.

In southern Africa, over 27 million people are suffering from malnutrition as the region experiences its worst drought in at least a century. Affected countries include Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, all of which have declared national disasters. Angola and Mozambique are also significantly affected. “We have months ahead of us,” said Eric Perdison, WFP’s southern Africa director, back in October. “It is also likely to further deepen the already high risk of chronic malnutrition.” Perdison added: “If you look at rainfall patterns, if you look at drought patterns within the region, we cannot point to any other factor than climate change.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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