Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continues in north-central Australia

28 October 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in June 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in northern Australia will diminish, though will still remain present in some regions of Northern Territory. Exceptional deficits across the continent will similarly dissipate, though severe deficits are expected along the southern coast of Victoria. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Southwestern Northern Territory, throughout regions near the locality of Lake Mackay. These surpluses continue northeast into regions near Tarrabool Lake. 

  • Central Western Australia, near Lake Wells. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Western coastal regions of Victoria, near Adelaide and Victor Harbor. 

  • Northern New Zealand, appearing near the city of Auckland. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through December 2024 indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in north-central portions of Northern Territory and northwestern Queensland. Transitional conditions are also expected in north-central Northern Territory, near the locality of Victoria River. Moderate surpluses will arise in central areas of the Yorke Peninsula, as well as eastern coastal regions of New South Wales, near the city of Sydney. 

From January through March 2025, extreme to exceptional surpluses in the northern portions of Australia are expected to dissipate, becoming abnormal deficits that spread throughout the majority of central Australia. Isolated pockets of moderate surpluses are expected in central areas of the Yorke Peninsula, as well as along eastern coastal regions of New South Wales and Victoria. Moderate deficits are anticipated along the southern coast of New Zealand. 

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2025 – indicates that primarily abnormal deficits will persist throughout the majority of Australia, as well as Tasmania and southern portions of New Zealand. Some abnormal surpluses are expected to occur in northern coastal regions of the continent. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

The city of Dunedin recently recorded its wettest day since 1923 after a low-pressure system brought heavy rainfall to portions of New Zealand. 5.63” of rain fell between 16:00 local time on October 2 and 08:00 local time on October 4 , 2024 – roughly 2.4 times the city’s typical rainfall for the entire month of October.A state of emergency was declared as the region experienced widespread flooding. 

According to Australia’s weather bureau, the possibility of a La Nina weather event occurring in the coming months has decreased. According to the bureau’s in-house climate model, four of the six climate models agree that La Nina will not develop, and if it did, it would not be categorized as severe. "If a La Nina were to develop, it is forecast to be relatively weak (in terms of the strength of the sea surface temperature anomaly) and short-lived, with all models forecasting neutral values in February," the bureau said.

Due to drought in the United States stifling beef production, Australia is best placed to take its market share as it expects to export record amounts of beef. Australia and the United States are among the world's largest beef exporters, accounting for over 10% of the global beef trade. "Demand out of the U.S. export market is driving the prices up in abattoirs, which then drives the market up for cattle," said Ryan McDonald, a local livestock manager. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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