Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses emerge in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses emerge in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam

25 October 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in June 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will resolve throughout much of Southeast Asia. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in some countries within Mainland Southeast Asia. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Myanmar, in southern areas of the state of Rakhine, continuing east into regions near the cities of Pyay and across the Surin province.

  • Laos, throughout the Houaphanh province and into regions of northern Vietnam. 

  • Northern Thailand, across the province of Mae Hong Son. These surpluses are also expected to be present in southern Cambodia, throughout the Kampot Province. 

  • Central Philippines, near the city of Dumaguete. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Northern Thailand, within the Loei Province and in southern areas of the Sa Kaeo Province.  

  • Indonesia, along Sumatra’s western coast, as well as in isolated areas of South Sumatra. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2024 indicates that exceptional surpluses are expected to persist across western and central Myanmar, as well as northern areas of Laos. Central Thailand is forecast to experience severe to extreme deficits. Maritime Southeast Asia will observe a mixture of near-normal conditions and moderate surplus scattered throughout the region. 

From January through March 2025, much of Maritime Southeast Asia is expected to observe near-normal conditions and abnormal deficits. Mainland Southeast Asia is expected to observe similar conditions, though small portions of western Myanmar and northern Laos are expected to experience exceptional surpluses. Central Thailand may experience isolated pockets of exceptional deficit. 

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2025 – anticipates near-normal conditions and abnormal deficits to persist across most of Maritime Southeast Asia. Exceptional deficits may arise in east-central Thailand. Surpluses in Myanmar are expected to mostly dissipate, though central regions of the country may observe moderate to severe surpluses. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On October 23rd, torrential rain and flooding killed at least nine people in the eastern Philippines. The majority of deaths were caused by landslides and drowning, which was confirmed by police and local officials. Seven people were reported missing, and many were trapped on roofs. “People have been stuck on roofs of their houses for several hours now,” former Vice President Leni Robredo, who lives in the northeastern city of Naga, said in a post on Facebook early Wednesday. “Many of our rescue trucks have stalled due to the floods.”

Heavy flooding from Typhoon Yagi has caused significant economical damage in northern Thailand, with some experts estimating costs of nearly $830 million USD. The province of Chiang Rai was hit the hardest, experiencing intense flash floods and landslides. Krungsri Research projects that damages caused by the flooding from this year alone could be as high as 46.5 billion baht, or about 0.27% of the country’s gross domestic product. 

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs recently released an assessment of the damage caused by Typhoon Yagi, citing it as a humanitarian crisis. Nearly 1 million people across Myanmar are reportedly affected by the flooding, which caused significant damage to the Northwest, Southeast, and Rakhine states. Over 360 people drowned and at least 100 more are missing. The floods have devastated agricultural areas by submerging thousands of crops, destroying farmlands, and killing livestock.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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